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 Ronnie Tumlin's opinions based on facts, fiction and other irrational information

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May 10, 2012  Time continues to fly by.  I have thought about this quite a bit too.  I think the only way to explain it is if you are ten years old and it's January, Santa is one tenth of your life away from coming back to town.....a tenth!  A year seemed like forever when we were kids.  Now, a year is 1/60th of our life, seems like Santa comes every week! 

Hottest properties for sale right now on the island:

We just listed a Summerhouse developer's unit number 102 that is a corner townhouse with nothing short of spectacular views.  It has a big slider on the east side and the northeast wall in the living room has TWO giant picture windows looking at the beach as well.  The balcony is open on the north side for expansive views.  The Master Bedroom has    TWO large picture windows looking at the beach.  this is a special unit and priced at $429,000

 

Bartefoot Trace there are two oceanfront beauties for sale both are priced in the high 300s very good buys. 

 

We have 4 Colony Reef units for sale, ground floor, third floor, second floor, fourth floor we have them all and all are priced in the upper 200s.  Very good buys with great views of the beach and ocean, elevators, all flats, some are totally remodeled.

 

We have four Beacher's Lodge units for sale from the second floor to the top fourth floor $149,000-$249,000

 

Ocean Villas second floor 3/2 flat overlooking tropical lagoon pool area, short walk to the beach thru this oceanside complex  $214,000

 

I have checked over and over and I swear our office has the best listings on the entire island right now in numerous price ranges.  We have 4 listings at Ocean Village Club ranging from $125,000-$275,000

 

Sounds like we're not selling anything right?  Wellllll, we have closed on 15 condos this year, two vacant lots and two houses so we are doing okay, not burning the boomerang but doing okay.  We work hard to get listings and get more than our share. 

 

Oh yeah, just listed a rare find....Spanish Trace...unit 232 a nice 2/2 oceanview townhouse.  Spanish Trace is one of the favorite locations on the island, walking distance to restaurants and shops, oceanfront complex, small elevators, well kept.  First unit ont he market this year.  $239,000   call us or email us for more information and see all these on "our listings" on the left hand side of this page....th th that's all folks.  RT

May Day!   Already.....seems like the Navy was fishing for big ones and using some new bait in the Indian Ocean just a little while ago.  No, they didn't catch a thing.  If you're gonna catch a big one you gotta use fresh fat bait, not something that looks like a chicken bone.  How bout the market at Crescent Beach?  Well folks, it has been an interesting year already.  I have seen deals not so good, sell while good deals sit.  I have seen great condos on the beach sell while so so units sit looking for a new owner.  I have seen cash buyers, buyers who got loans, buyers who were denied loans.  Banks stick to their word on loans and banks who changed the entire deal at the 11th hour.  I have seen people walk in take one look and say they'll take it and others walk in and anguish over it for weeks then say they'll take it while others anguish themselves into oblivion.  There are no rules today, nothing you can hang your hat on.  Every day is a crap shoot and the feds are the stick men.

 

I think gasoline is backing off right now, and if it would sink back to around $3.20 or less people will take a deep breath and perhaps get on with living and start riding around with half full tanks again.  I think the fed is full of fools keeping interest rates at zero.  We do not see interest rates having anything to do with the housing market....zero.  It may in some markets where the general public lives hand to mouth every week but not here.  Zero interest rates are hurting people who have always saved and done business the way we thought we were supposed to. Now, if you have savings you are watching them erode to nothing which  brings me to a new point.

 

A Wall Street friend and client of mine who strarted buying up rental condos last year sent me an interesting financial article today where some guy who is some sort of financial guru is advising investors to buy 3-4% short term bonds ( I didn't know there was such a thing that wasn't risky), 3-4% dividend yield stocks....and......and he advised buying real assets.  That means income producing property I think.  I have had a number of clients in the past 12 months come to the conclusion that the real estate market has pretty much bottomed out in this part of the world.  They also surmised that one can purchase a property for cash and if he chooses wisely he can see a 4-8% net return on his money from renting it on the weekly rental market on the beach.  There are also opportunities around our colleges where you can do the same with condos for college kids.  Here's the catch.  You gotta have cash unless you have a source of borrowing such as a home equity line of credit.  We had a couple of people cash out some mutual funds and do this very thing.  People sitting on liquid assets are in a quandry about what to do with it and many have chosen the income producing real asset route.  So far, so good.  The upside is the core value of the property should grow from here all the while producing an income stream of 4-8%.

 

All this is well and good and if true why would anybody want to sell right now?  Where do I start?  I'll have to be blunt about this.  Sickness, have seen sellers who needed money for nursing facilities in their old age, have seen people with various ailments that they need cash, divorce ...that is always in play.  Some people want to move up in size and location, some want to move down.  Some have simply grown tired of owning beachy property the kids are gone and grown moved far away the folks don't come visit much any more yada yada.  Have some who simply need cash to live on, their cash savings has evaporated over the past few years with no interest being earned their portfolios have suffered so they simply need cash to live on and the beach property is their lifeline simple as that.  Which leads me to another point.  This is also a reason to buy....create a lifeline that you can use in the future should you need it.   People can't sell their houses up north, they can't sell their businesses, they can't sell vacant land.....BUT THEY CAN SELL THEIR BEACH PROPERTY....simple as that folks.  Just had some friends of mine sell thier beach condo and are using the money to build their dream home in their home town on the river.  Time to buy create your lifeline.  You name it I see it,  and that ends today's economics lesson from the one who knows all, sees all, predicts all.

April 18, 2012   finally some sanity is returning.  I swear, every year just before our winter guests by the thousands get ready to return home they all want to shop for condos for sale.  Yeah, right.  They run agents ragged for the first two weeks of April every single year but very little sells if anything.  We think they are simply getting a free tour of the various condos on the island to see if they want to rent something different next year and masquerade as bona fide buyers.  New news you can use?  We just listed a really nice ground floor 2/2 at Ocean Village Club number P-17 that is really comfy and close to the oceanfront pool and walkover  $229,000.  We are closing on a nice Summerhouse next week for cash-Fannie/Freddie just pulled finance status on Summerhouse last week as they also did Ocean Gallery and Ocean & Racquet.  More to follow.  More new federal rules that are helping to kill the market unless you are a cash buyer.  We have a great ground floor Barefoot Trace for 395,000  and a second floor oceanfront for 397,000.

 

Hottest complex on the beach right now is still Ocean Village Club.  Place looks great after a major renovation and now landscaping project which really has dressed the place up.  We have already sold 3 this year and have one to close next week.  Four others are pending.  I think the reason it is hot is because you can still get one under 200,000 and you can get financing.  Simple as that.  If you want an ocean view you can get one for less than 300.  RT

April 3, 2012  just when I thought we could get some peace around here, its spring break time.  Restaurants are full, all the rental condos are full....doesn't  anybody work any more?  In my next life I wanna be a school teacher.  Work half a year, get full benefits and retirement at an early age.  Sure they earn it but the stress level has to be a 1 in most cases unless you teach high school in a tough neighborhood then you're probably spending more time with your head on a swivel than with a chalkboard.  If I were a teacher today I would wear a football helmit to work.  Real estate market right now?  In a word, busy but the big problem as always is renters clogging up everything for sale.  A real boon to owners wanting to rent,  this spring break business I think it runs for two months now.  Some interesting facts for you.  The average ocean front or ocean view condo for the first time in my lifetime will actually make a respectable profit if you pay cash for it and rent it out.  A better return than cash in the bank by a wide margin, you can expect 4-5% triple net return if you buy right. 

call us and let's talk about it or email Ronnie right now.  Best deals on the beach:  In a 1 bedroom,  Ocean Village Club in the 115-125 range, in a 2 bedroom there is an Anastasia flat with great views in the 240 range, Summerhouse 250ish, Creston House 250ish.  3 bedroom how bout an Ocean Villas on the pool front, walk past the pool to the beach in 2 minutes  $214,000  ask me about that one.  Can be a rental giant and has lots of room.  You could live in this unit.  Want oceanfront?  Barefoot Trace unit 215 best oceanfront deal on the beach period at $397,000.  Ocean Village Club Q23 at $275,000 oceanfront brings in over 24,000 a year in rent the only drawback is the damned palm trees block your view a bit.  I'd fertilize those with diesel fuel if I bought it.  You can get an oceanfront Summerhouse 2/2 with stairs for 375ish, Sand Dollar 3/2 oceanfront now priced in the 450 and up range.  There are not a lot of choices right now but these do exist.  Inventory is down 65% from two years ago.  There are currently less than 200 condos for sale on the entire island and less than 40 have ocean views or are oceanfront.  This is a dramatic turn around from two years ago.  We already have clients complaining prices are higher than what they thought they could get one for.  The train is pulling out of the station and it is hard to stop a locomotive or leap a tall building.  Best get your wallet out now.

 

New interesting statistic that the government issued today regarding housing and costs.  They said that the cost of renting has increased 8% in the last six months.  And, it went on to say the monthly cost of renting is now 14% more than the cost of a mortgage payment.  Imagine that.  Didn't those clowns ready my comments from September?  Any idiot knows that stuff but it took the high paid government analysts six months to figure it out, you got the information from the great one who knows all sees all predicts all....for freeeee.  Oh yes, the government still says there is no inflation going on.  Right.

 

Political predictions from the great one:  same prediction I made in June 2011, why should I change it?  I saw it a year ago and it still applies today.  Obama will be re elected no matter who the republicans nominate.  The formula of more people on government paychecks than people working independently of the government translates into votes for Obama and the give away society he is cultivating.  I saw yesterday in a Dairy Queen a group of people standing in line ordering shakes, blizzards, the works all in super size and so help me, one of them pulled out a Flag Card and paid the bill.  A Flag Card at Dairy Queen.  If I'm lyin I'm diein.  They now get free housing, free cell phones, flag cards for food apparently of any kind from anywhere, free spending money.  I predict this right here and now folks:  The Flag Cards will soon be good for free gasoline too probably 50 bucks worth a week or so, book it Danno.  Ronnie Tumlin guarantees you will see the day and sooner than later.  You tell me how Obama can lose?  Nevada re elected Harry didn't they?  That was a joke, a very bad one.  The only hope for independently self sufficient  working people is that we maintain a stalemate in the House or Senate.  If Harry and Nancy get back in power with Barack navigating,  the first two years will look like child's play.

 

Prediction on the Supreme Court decision on Obamacare:  I am afraid they will table the decision until after the election or either uphold it.  We all know it is unconstitutional and so does the group who wrote it up.  The question is will the court have the guts to make the call or let it slide?  I don't think there are 5 people sitting there with the guts, maybe 4 but not 5.  There will be an internal arguement and probably a negotiation buyout just like the House and Senate did to buy the final votes.  Where does Ronnie stand?  I honestly don't know.  I know we needed to do something but 2700 pages of gobbeldygook written by ghosts in Washington?  Nah, I could have done the entire thing in less than 50 pages and it would have made sense.  They did it like kids used to do term papers when such was required.  Write enough pages with enough garble that the teacher will get bored with it and give you a hook on the paper. She might ask what you were thinking then you can dance around it real easily. The A students did it in 3 pages.  Me?  2.6 gpa good nuff to stay outa Nam.  My handicap was lower than my gpa.  Still is too.

 

Will the political landscape affect the real estate market?  in general throughout the country?  Yes both good and bad not enough bites here to go through it.  These ridiculously low interest rates are choking everybody.  It's like free money.  Stupid.  Cash is of little value.  Smart people are cashing in and buying income producing property from commercial to vacation rentals.  What is 'Ronnie doing?  I have plenty of income producing property I have owned for decades never sold it figured it is the ultimate hedge.  Too old to go buy more now.  Politics will not hurt the beach though.  We only have 9 miles of it here it is in demand it will be in demand...always and that's about all the information today fit to print.  RT
March 19, 2012 ahhhhh all quiet on the Eastern Front-  Motorcycle season is over till October.  We still have a lot of activity, people are not only looking at the lower priced stuff but are also looking in that 400-500 range if we can get in the units.  A lot of winter renters are staying later than usual this year.  I guess a good stock market has them feeling good or either they can't afford the gas to drive home.  Not sure.  RT

March 14, 2012 business is still crazy, tons of people wanting to shop nothing to sell.  Had a guy today asking for the best deals priced from 200-350,000  I came up with five.  F, I, V, E that is it.  He wanted to see them all.  No can do, all are rented.  This is spring break and motorcycle week in Daytona.  Daytona organizes the thing but they all come here!  Sounds like a continuous Daytona 500 outside all day long.  But it will be over soon and I guess if a war breaks out we can use some good tough motorcycle gangsters.  On second thought, I have been eyeballing a lot of them up close at the traffic lights and they are getting rather long of tooth.  Gray beards, saw a guy the other day with little side training wheels to help hold it up when he stopped at the red light.....I swear!  What happened to the guys with chains and tattoos?  The tattoos I see now go running down the guy's arm when it rains.  The ladies on the back are no spring chickens either.  All I can figure is theonly people who can afford to ride one of those things around for a week up and down the beach are retired and rich and they didn't use a chain for a belt either back in the olden days.  I see lots of them coming down the interstate with their cycles in the back of the truck.  I guess they park out in the woods and sneak it off the back with a 2 X 6 and ride into town like they just came from Michigan on it......non stop.  Just kiddin man don't knock my windshield out with a bat.

 

What is selling?  we have several offers working today but nothing a done deal yet.  Too tough to get potential buyers into anything the whole beach is 100% booked up.  Everything.  Keep you posted.  RT
Feb 29, 2012  We have an old friend we have known for 40 years having her 18th birthday today, Happy Birthday Barbara.  Now what have I been telling you about Americans and a feel good attitude we have seen the past six months?  It all has to do with gasoline period.  Sales have been excellent since October right?  Right.  In the past ten days we have seen a significant decline in lookers, two people who had contracts on property abruptly pulled out and cancelled with no reason given other than "they changed their minds"  Folks, you heard it right here first many months ago.....gasoline is king....gas under 3.00 a gallon everything is great.....3.50....skittish, when it gets to 4.00 and above the brakes are on.  Guess what?  Brakes.  If I am wrong, we will see what happens the next few months.  The geniuses in government announced this week that January existing home sales jumped!  Hah, that's old news if you read these morsels from the one who knows all predicts all well in advance of the so called experts. 

 

Here's a laugher for you.  I always love it when an individual thinks he knows more about the real estate market than those who do it for a living.  These guys go around brokers and find owners and cut their own deal thinking they saved the commission.   Kind of like a day trader at home thinking he can out fox the insiders on Wall Street.  I have it on good authority a gentleman, who obviously isn't dumb cause he had cash, just purchased a condo for $330,000 cash from the owner no brokers involved.  No big deal right?  Here's the laugh.  He paid in my opinion 10% or roughly 35,000 too much.  I know the unit, it is nice, great locatgion,  but I guarantee you it will not appraise for anything that starts with a 3.  Now the real funny one....the seller is now thinking he sold too cheap!  Thinking about how to get out of the deal.  HaH!

 

Best deals on the beach?  The cold hard factgs are....our brokerage has the best deals on the beach even one of our competitors remarked yesterday we had all the best listings.  I said, really?   We have the best Summerhouse and it is the lowest priced, we have the lowest priced large 2/2 oceanfront flat at Barefoot Trace for less than 400,000...I said less.  We have the best deals at Colony Reef, we have the only two units for sale in the Q building at Ocean Village Club both priced below 300, we have the lowest price at Ocean Gate and this unit has all the upgrades.  We have gthe best deal at Ocean Villas a 3/2 for $215,000 the lowest priced 3/2 in the complex.   Buyers need look no farther than right here right now.  If gasoline doesn't run your life like it does mine, call us we have the deals.

Feb 23, 2012 Yeah Yeah I hear ya  Been too busy to crow about all my correct predictions.  I looked back to my proclomations from August when experts were predicting gasoline would drop below 3 dollars and I said 4 would come sooner than later.  Well.......did it again.  I also started carping six months ago the only thing that could derail Obama would be gasoline prices.  Alas!  the past ten days the news is nothing but gasoline prices are sky rocketing.  These geniuses on TV and in print are now starting to ask if the gas prices will hurt Obama?

But youuuuu those who regularly follow the great shephard with Crescent Beach crystal ball made from purest white sands, knew all this a long time ago....its old hat tricks, all the rabbits already hopped off a long time ago.

 

Real Estate market?  Lots of lookers, lots of them.  Dusty said today it's kind of like the stock market they have all been sitting on the sidelines and now that a trend up has begun they want in....but not at today's price tghey want in at last summer's price!  I want gasoline at last summer's price too don't you?  Our biggest problem now is the same ole same ole.....renters are here by the thousands and a bunch of them want to look,  but everything is rented to renters who are here by the thousands.  Can't look at much until the renters are gone then the renters will be gone.

 

Bestg deals on the beach?  We have the best deals in Hibiscus, Ocean Village Club,  Colony Reef, Barefoot Trace and Summerhouse.  All are extremely difficult to see except the Summerhouse unit 344 which we just listed and is 10,000 below units that are not as good.  RT

Feb 14, 2012     Okayyyy enough already so the great one missed one prediction in 14 years.....I declared winter over and Monday morning there was frost on the lawn...big deal.  To prove a point I got the paper in my drawers and a t shirt neighbors were still asleep.  It was 65 by noon and supposed to be 75 tomorrow.  Remember how I have been saying vacant lots will get hot in 2012?  I just talked to a guy in south Florida who wants to buy a lot here and he said down there vacant lots are in demand big time.  Surprise surprise.  When you look into the greeat one's crackled and smokey ball you see such things well before they happen.

 

Business is still very very good but we have one huge problem right now.  It is not a lack of buyers it is a lack of avails.  Annnnnd, buyers who suffer from "I remember when's disease"  an affliction that I am afraid will be around like the pig flu, it just won't go away.  Hey, what ever happened to the bird flu?  I thought it was going to shut down the whole country maybe the world with a pandemic?  Anyway buyers are now coming around wanting to buy for last year's prices.....doesn't everybody?  That train left the station.  The short sales and bank repos are cleaned out of the pipeline.  Owners who want to sell are not dumping like the banks did but buyers want a dump price....hard to come by.....appraisals will not keep up with values.  We are seeing people offer up 30 and 40% down because appraisals are falling short.  That is just the way it is in 2012.  Everybody keeps saying this run will stop and we will go backwards again.  I don't think so because the buyers we are seeing are responsible people with good credit and or cash.  A entirely different clientel than during crazy times.

 

Our other big problem right now is access.  The best deals on the island are all rented up.  Renters are not real wild about people coming every few days to look, so we are telling people this.  If you are dead serious about it, and want to make an offer contingent upon inspecting the unit first hand fine, we can get you in one way or another but if you're just window shopping you will have to wait till the next day the unit is not rented.

 

Still sticking to my prediction made 10 months ago:  Obama will be re elected.  Result?  no big deal if we can hold the house, and if by some strange circumstance we can get the Senate too then business will boom again guaranteed.  If we go back to Pelosi and Reid control with Obama in the White house that could be biiiig trouble, all bets are off.  Could be Greece within 5 years or less.  I think its bestg we n ot worry about it till November and let the TV talking heads squawk all they want I am not paying attention any more.  RT

Feb 8, 2012   The great one strikes again silently, smuggly, predictably.  I have been preaching to our people here and to owners of vacant lots on the island the time was very near we would see vacant lots take off again.  Hardly any have sold in years.  Today is the 8th of February and I personally just firmed up three....count'em three solid contracts on three vacant lots all about a block off the beach.  Average price was around $160,000 which is less than half what we sold same same for back in 2004/5.  But hey, as predicted vacant lots are coming back into favor.  If Mama wants a newer house she ain't gonna find it.  The new houses are now 10 years old!  What was new awhile back are now all beat up by renters because owners who couldn't dump the houses had to rent them.  Now.....as the Great One predicted right on cue.....Papa has to keep Mama happy.....vacant lot and a new house coming right up.  And this my friends is just the beginning of a resurgence of vacant lot values.  I predict they will literally sky rocket in the next 2-5 years unless something crazy happens in Washington.  That is always the "yeah, but"  or the hedge so to speak.  All bets are off if Washington goes all democratic again in November.  HERE IS THE BAD NEWS:  No bank will loan money on a vacant lot period.  Zero.  If you are going to sell we have to find a cash buyer or somebody whose bank will let them do a construction/lot loan.  The banks will talk to you about that but with a wrinkled lip and a frown.

 

New stuff we just got listed:  Ocean & Racquet condo ocean view top floor flat $179,000   Summerhouse beautifully remodeled with great views $239,000   We still have the Barefoot Trace 2nd floor oceanfront for $397,000 it is rented until April.  Ocean Village Club just got a couple of new units for sale ground level poolside in the $165ish range.  Good deals.   RT 

Feb 1, 2012  Okay Ronnie does not know an answer for every question, imagine that.  That being said,  I came up with an answer all you brokers can use who follow my tracks regularly.  Next time a customer starts telling you what a property is worth here on the island and they say:  "well Zillo says its worth......or Trulia says its worth......"   All you got to do is ask: have you looked your own house to see what those totally laughable sites say your house is worth?  Go ahead look it up.  Works every time folks, works every time.  RT

January 30, 2012  I tell ya folks business is really perkin right now.  We had two, count'em two.....condos snatched right out from under a couple of our clients this past 5 days who were sitting on the fence "thinkin about it"  one told us to send them the contract this morning and it sold yesterday afternoon...we warned'em.  No, prices are not shooting upwards, its just that people are buying.  Ronnie has also written three count'em three contracts on vacant lots in the past 4 days and I haven't sold one in two years!  Okay they were all under 200,000 but hey the buyers are happy the sellers are happy so I'm happy.

 

St Augustine Ampitheatre goings on right here on the beach:  coming in the next few weeks  Bill Clinton yeah that one but he's a big deal to some people....here's the kicker:  Hank Williams Jr is coming in a couple of weeks.  We already had Toby Keith and I hear he might be coming back.  I got talked into seeing the Oakridge Boys with a free ticket....or course.....but I actually really enjoyed it.  The theatre is outdoors with a huge Australian style canvas like they have in Sydney about 5000 can be seated comfortably.  Betcha Hank fills the place slap dab up.  You want culture?  Man, we got'em all.....right here at the beach.

 

Ronnie hereby declares winter officially OVER    You think I'm nuts right?  the average mid day temperatures since October have been 70 degrees, we have not had a single frost day....zero.  My hibiscus bushes are blooming like crazy, my fruit trees are blooming and puttingn on new growth.  I have got to go find a pecan tree for the official word.  Grandma always said if the pecan tree started putting out new growth winter was over.  Ground hogs?  Nah, who needs'em when you got meeeeee?  The one who knows all sees all predicts all well in advance of the highly paid over educated.  Oh, I have several degrees from several institutions.....no!  real ones where you have to attend class no mail away diplomas here.

  I was a C student period, always have been barely slipped by....was too busy playing on the golf team and fishin besides professors and I never got along real good.  A univeristy professor asked for a mid term essay and I told him exactly what he wanted to hear and got an A.  Then the final was an essay on what I had learned while attending USF.  I told the truth, that most professors could not make a living in the real world and I had a problem with them telling me how to make a living  in marketing, broadcasting and the like.  He flunked me accusing me of cheating he said no way the same person wrote both papers.  I said hah!  That proves you are not nearly as smart as meeee because I did write both and you were totally fooled.   He gave me an F in the course.  After I got Angus to write the president of the university a nasty letter from his law office they changed my grade to a C which was fine I didn't care but I needed that hook to graduate.  My best professors were the smart ones who knew what was going on in the class room like Marshall Jones.  He knew who was doing the work and who was slidin by.  He was a very smart man and a great teacher.  He flunked me in Trig just  before a big golf match making me ineligible.  I hollered like a little kid, he said okay, come back in here in 3 days and if you make an A on the final I'll give you a C.  I aced the final....he laughed and gave me the hook.  He knew I could do it but he also knew I'd been loafin.  Smart man.  RT

January 25, 2012   We are still running in overdrive.  Put an Ocean Village Club condo under contract this week, one of our sales people Cindee said she had three clients from out of town call her and say they are ready to buy something and are coming to look.  I am almost ready to declare an official real estate market recovery at the Beach.  Not so fast my friends, this ain't my first chimney.  I know it can change on a dime too and probably will but right now the market is alive and well.  We are still negotiating a couple of deals between buyers and sellers that we wrote up last week don't know if they will all fly but they're in the air still.

 

Ronnie's best buys on the beach right now:  Ocean Village Club.  You can still purchase a 2/2 in this oceanside complex on the interior heated pool in the upper 100s.  Like from 160ish to 200 depending on the size and condition.  I checked the mls today and there are 5 under contract! One of the deals is ours too!  For ocean front condos I think there are a couple of stand outs right now.  Hibiscus and Summerhouse.  Hibiscus is undergoing some extnesive rehab work and is starting to look good,  You can get a ground floor oceanfront for less than 300 and a top floor flat for less than 300.  At Summerhouse you can get an oceanfront townhouse in nice shape remodeled for less than 350,000...I said less!  That is pretty darned good.  These prices are what they were ten years ago and that is why I think people are scrambling to buy right now.  If inflation kicks in big time your real estate and rental property will go up in value with inflation your cash will not.  So why would anybody want to sell in that case?  Because they are running low on cash what they had is gone because they no longer collect any interest on their cash and it is dwindling in their bank accounts....or should I say OUR BANK ACCOUNTS? 

 

What about Sand Dollar and Barefoot Trace the two most popular oceanfront complexes?  If you want a ground floor unit there are some good deals left.  The upper floors are for the most part sold at this time and no new listings available.  Sand Dollar has a few but the new prices are giving a lot of buyers heart burn. 

 

Ronnie's Political  Prognostications coming to fruition:  Look back and you will see I have been saying Obama will not get beat unless gas prices keep going up.  He obviously reads my column right here, in fact I am quite sure his entire staff is on edge every time I fire up the keyboard they probably have the great one on their watchlist.  I stayed awake last night juuuuust long enough to hear Obama say he was ordering more federal land be opened up for drilling, more offshore sites to be opened up for new drilling too....imagine that.  Told you    EVERBODY listens when Ronnie E F Tumlin speaks and for good reason too.  3 years ago today gasoline was about $1.85 a gallon.  this morning in St Augustine Beach the beep station had regular priced at $3.44  How's Obama's change working for ya?  In another couple of weeks it could easily be double what it was when he took office.  He knows it, his henchmen know it, his handlers know it and they will be releasing oil from national reserves, opening up drilling sites, you name it trying to get gasoline down between now and November.  Book it Danno and you heard it right here six months ago and repeated again here today.  Okay self awarded accolades aside....If Ronnie was running the Obama campaign today what would I do?  I would tell my puppet to quit hollering about rich people.  I would focus on gasoline prices period.  I would quietly beg the congress to over ride the puppet's proclomation that the pipeline for Canadian oil would not be built .  I would secretly cut a deal with the big oil people to build new refineries immediately.  Did you know the newest oil refinery in this country is over 30 years old?  30!  I only have two pairs of shoes that old.  Yeah, really....Footjoy lizard skin dress loafers.  Can't even buy'em any more.  On my second set of soles, quit wearing them awhile and saved for special occasions only since I haven't seen a shoe cobbler in 20 years.
I would ask the beep people for forgiveness and ask them to please come back and drill in the gulf and tell the puppet to tell the public that new federal safety measures are now in place that insure no spill will ever happen again and tell them it was all our idea and that beep agreed to implement the new technology at our insistence.  People are dumb, they'll believe it.  There's your blue print for re election boys, go to it....oh yeah one more thing, take the keys away to Air Force One....the repubs are going to beat that horse to death that the puppet has toured the world on vacations in a 3 short years more than the last half dozen presidents combined. The Air Force is going to have to put new wings on it. RT

January 19, 2012  man, what a first three weeks of the year, going crazy with lookers from all over the mid west and northeast.   You have been reading since October I declared the real estate recession over at Crescent Beach and I was right right right but that's not news its old hat.  So what's going on?  Here's the feedback I have been getting from our buyers.  Let me start with Bill, he came in looked at a unit on the beach I had been singing about to every person I knew.  He asked to see the rental records, talked to the rental people, liked the view, liked the complex and agreed with me.  Presto....wrote a check.  Then Mike and Gayle come in they already own a condo in the area and wanted another.  They think now is the time to collect another on the beach.  Presto, wrote a check.   I asked both parties why cash?  What about a loan?  They both said no way.  Their money, one in a bank another had it n a brokerage account, was earning them zero.  The annual account expense ate away at their cash and theya re figuring they can net about 3-4% minimum in rent on their cash and if the price of the condo goes up ten cents over the next 4 years they are 3-4% plus a dime ahead of what their cash would be doing.  PLUS they get depreciaition and other write offs.  They said no brainer.  Another guy came with his agent and is paying full asking price for a nice condo on the island away from the beach.  He was at first getting a mortgage but has changed his mind and is paying cash.  Same response.  Had a guy from the mid west come along and make an all cash offer on a vacant lot we had over in town overlooking the waterway.  It has been on the market 4 years.  Presto done deal closes next friday.  Got another guy from Jersey offering cash on a lot at St Aug Beach close quick.  Have another customer willing to pay 8000 over the appraised price on a condo near the beach that is a beauty and exactly what he wanted.  He hates to pay more but told me it was exactly what he wanted and was afraid if he waits for another the price will be going up anyway...guess what?  he's right.  He is getting a loan and the crap is already starting from the inept people at the bank.  They have no clue what they are doing.  None, zilch, zero, nada, no way Jose'   I am estimating it will take 8-12 weeks to get him financed if we can at all and his credit score is close to 800 and he has 50% cash down.  Bank is nervous because he works outside the country and get this...he is a US citizen and veteran.  Go figure.  Had some people come in Monday look at an Estuaries....wrote the contract they can pay cash or finance.  Talking to their bank to see how many flaming jagged edge hoops they gotta jump through to decide.

 

So what's to gripe about?  life is great at the beach right?  Yeah it is...a whole lot better.  Now we have an entirely new dilemma.  Nothing for sale!  I have people coming this weekend check book in hand problem is since they started looking six months ago, the choices are half what they were!  Here is a typical order from people now looking:  I want something right on the beach 2 or 3 bedrooms all one floor, I want it fairly new or remodeled and I want it under $400,000.,  Okayyyy let me see here.  I have uhhhhh, uhhhhh gee whiz .... none for sale right now.  How about 450?  yeah I have a couple of those showing up but the owners are not very negotiable.

 

Folks the $350,000 oceanfront flat train has left the station that party is over.  The $190,000 ocean view 2/2 bus pulled out three months ago, they are all gone.  All gone.

So, are buyers stepping up their game?  willing to pay a little more?  NOPE THEY AIN'T.  They will now start suffering from "I remember when's disease"  a horrible affliction that affects nearly 100% of those who have waited to make a move since the beginning of last year.  They will most likely never get over it and their kids will never experience owning a property on the beach.  We are going to have to wait for a whole new crop of lookers to come along this year who don't know what they could have bought last year for what.  Hells Bells I would love to go buy a 1970 396 cubic inch Chevelle SS  for 3400 dollars loaded out the door like I did 42 years ago.  Today I can buy one like new but its 120 grand....and that's if I could pry one out of some guys hands which I doubt I could if I had the dough to burn.  Can't afford the tires anyway.  Do you have any idea how much two new rear tires every 30 days cost?

 

Here's the deal folks, the great one has predicted get ready for a run and the run is here.  Will it last?  I dont know, been running since October with no signs of hiatus yet.  Why?  As you can see cash is a big deal.  People with cash are nervous it isn't going to be worth anything in the near future.  Buy gold young man!  Yeah right...and do what with it?  shave off a sliver every week or so and take it to the grocery for a steak?  I don't think so.  Best you can do with it is sell to some other sucker or to a dentist maybe.

 

Hey, that reminds me what about those gold clad coins they hawk on TV every day.  The Frankie Sucker mint in bumfart bumingham has announced the discovery of just a handfull of never circulated American made bluffalo dabloons that are fully gold clad in 24 carat gold!  Get yours now for just $9.95 each plus shipping and handling while supplies last.  Gold could go to 3000 dollars an ounce by the end of the year as predicted by leading experts!  Order now they will be shipped right to your door discretely.  Sorry we must limit all customers to only five coins each since supplies are limited.  Folks, you know what an expert is?  A squirt under pressure and that's about it.  They've been running those ads for years seems like inflation or gold prices would increased the bluffalow farts coins a buck or so?  Nah, they got plenty of lead in leadville they'll coat lots more for ya.

 

You want something you can sink your teeth into and get something back one day?  Get money back every month in rent?  Come get a place at the beach.  If you are getting old like me and tired of worrying about it and need some cash to buy some bluffs with, call me I'll find you a buyer for real money you can spend and enjoy.  Leave the property to your kids?  no no, wait just a minute let me tell you some stories.  If you leave the condo to the kids one will want to sell the others won't.  One will help pay the bills the other won't.  They WILL FIGHT ABOUT IT.  If you sell out now stash the cash and check out in a few years they will divide the money up evenly and everybody will be happy as jay birds in a briar patch.  Think about that....been there, seen that , over and over.  I you only have one heir you are okay hang on no problems.  If I am still alive they'll call me and sell before the weeds start up on your plot.  Done that lots of times and it works out fine.  They don't want to sell at first then the tax bill comes in then something breaks, then a special assessment.....when the bills start happening they never imagined occured before they come running.  I'll nver forget my buddy Tony.  I got a house for his daughter right after she got married.  Within 6 months she was yelling at him about the hot water heated needed replacing.  A refrigerator pump went out.  A light fixture int he garage blew out.  The garage door needed fixin.  YOu know the drill.  He laughed and said:  welcome to home ownership girl all that stuff happens all the time and will from now on.  Owning a home is not worry free never has been never will be.  Kids just don't know till they know.  RT

January 10, 2012  the great one does it again....and again.  You within the huge flock tended to,  by the master flocksman, have been hearing for roughly 24 months the real estate market had bottomed out.  Alas my friends!  Today huge news on the Today Show and Fox News.  J.P. Morgan experts declared that the real estate market appears to have bottomed out!  Do you have any idea how much these genius experts are paid to figure that out?  Thousands per hour?  Think of all the money your stock in that financial institution would be worth if they had spent 3 cents and looked here on my website two years ago.  How many times have you read right here by the time a trend is figured out in this country that train would have already left the station and you are on it.  Ronnie has done it again peering deeply into my  sand dune....buried within the millions of grains of sand lies the truth and you my friends found out about it two years ahead of what the Wall Street experts just now figured out.  They are like weather men....they can only tell you what happened yesteday.  Speaking of Wall Street, how you feeling about your portfolio?  Every week or so they say hey's time to buy!  They already bought in right?  Market runs up, they sell.  After they sell,  they tell you sell!  Europe is in trouble everybody out.  Then it all starts over again the next week.  If you snap up a condo right now prices are stable, rental incomes are going up rather nicely.  What else you need to know?

 

I repeat again Obama will be re elected unless gasoline goes to 4.50 a gallon by October 2012 and stays there till election day.  Exxon, BP, Phillips, Hess, Shell.....okay boys, the election is in your hands.  This economy is starting to fix itself, I told everybody in October we could feel the tide starting to come back in after 5 years of a dead low tide.  It shall continue to come back in ever so slowly because the congress is now split and they cannot agree on anything and that is a good thing.  A stalemate in government is better than a super majority any time.  Look at Clinton years, he fought with the republicans for 6 years.....it was a great six!  George II fought with the democrats for eight years another great 8.  Obama gets Nancy and Harry in charge and the whole world went to hell in a hand basket in just 2 years.  Now after only a year of a split congress the ship is righting itself.  Don't tell me it would have anyway....that's the same line they use about the worthless stimulus where politicians stole half the money and gave the other half to their buddies....enough already I'm getting lathered up.

 

Our busy market is showing signs today of a new stalemate:  all of a sudden sellers are starting to read things are improving so all of a sudden they are hanging on tighter thinking we will see an instant 20% increase in prices....and buyers are still trying to buy for last year's price.....us dummy realtors are getting hammered....new stalemate.  You may recall me writing about such a thing years ago I am beginning to see it this week.   We have received numerous offers on listings, we have several buyers for other listings.....everybody is walking up to the 39th parallel and staring at each over the fence...no shots fired, no hand shakes just staring each other down silently gazing.....while we twist in the wind.  A seller who exclaims he will take 400 on Monday will tell you Tuesday he has to have 405 when you bring him the 400.  Oh well, if you don't have a thick skin stay out of the real estate business. 

 

Inventory of condos for sale on the beach is at a 4 year low today.  Dusty told me today only 15 condos are for sale in zone 8 south Crescent Beach.  4 years ago there were over 200.  I can confidently say now is still a good time to buy and sell....the market is going to move a whisker or slide sideways a few more years no substantial increases or decreases in prices so let your pocketbook and wants determine the right situaiton for you.   RT

January 7 2012  Man, what a blast!  the whole beach is on fire.  The first full week of the new year we had half a dozen offers on listings and we put under contract three properties this week.  I have been preaching Q35 was the best deal on the beach, a wise couple agreed with me it is set to close in ten days.  Sold a vacant lot we've had on the market 4 years!  Another deal got done this afternoon, still working a deal on Hanna's.  Amazing.  One man asked the great one...."what is going on?  This has been going on since September" never one hide my exceptional abilities I told him gasoline.  You within my flock know full well how I have exclaimed by proclomation in the past business nation wide including general perception of the economy is directly tied to gasoline pricing.  Track it the proof is there plain and simple.
Gas started falling in August last year.  It continued right through the end of last week.  THIS WEEK?  gasoline shot up 24 cents a gallon around here...if it keeps going and I predict it will, we will drop right back into the abyss nation wide.  It will take the geniuses in Washington to figure it out about till mid March.

 

Here's another prediciton that is coming true right before your eyes.  Back in June I predicted Obama would win re election easily, the economy would start picking up, the banks would be instructed to ease up on loans to people and gasoline would start to drop.  The only wild card still in play is gasoline.  If the oil companies want Obama out all they gotta do is turn up the price.  BUT maybe they won't.  As long as Obama is in there their profits are sky rocketing so why not raise it?  they better be careful.  Yes, they can control this election book it Danno.

 

Back to business in general.  We are doing good, real good.  No, prices have not started rising but inventory on the beach is shrinking fast.  Two years ago there were nearly 500 condos for sale on the beach, last year around 380 today 200.  That is 200 out of over 9000!  Of the 200 I believe only about 15 are really for sale.  The rest are over priced and brokers will pass them by.  Buyers know what stuff is worth...or at least they think they do and perception is reality.  The internet is screwing things up big time with buyers.  These so called value web sites are crazy and not even close most of the time.  Put garbage in get garbage out and that is exactly what they are, garbage....high grade garbage too.  I talked to a clown at one of the big chains today and he started telling me about how condos were in the toilet and prices were still falling and will continue to fall.....I said:  uh huh, uh huh.....uh huh and just listend awhile and then agreed with him.  As long as those dunces believe that the better for me.  I know better, I know my market and it is good, very good.

 

Best deals on the board today:  Barefoot Trace 304 a third floor spotless place, semi updated for $399,000 Barefoot Trace 215 another oceanfront on the second floor at $397,000.  The Ocean Village Club Q35 is now sold so the other two Q building listings are now the best of the 15 in this 360 unit complex for sale.  The Sand Dollar we recommended sold so now the best deal is in the 450 range.  There is a federal government owned Estuaries 3/2 marsh front very big and very very nice for sale at $219,000 with a garage  This is an outstanding value.  Winding Creek a really nice 3/2 for $137,000 it is about 15 minutes from the beach but hey it's cheeeeeeap.  A new Summerhouse oceanfront town house 2/2.5 nicely updated just came on the market at $349,000 this is a good deal compared to the others for sale.  RT

 

p.s. no, banks have not gotten any easier to deal with regarding the red tape....if anything it is getting worse but they will loan the money its just you have to wring it out of them and take a ton of bs from them to get it done
Last entry this year Dec 26, 2011   Finally appears we got the deal that the bank was jerking us all around on done....only one problem.  Bank is closed today.  The rest of the real world is at work and banks are closed.  hells bells they were closed a week before Christmas for all practical matters what's another day?  I am quite sure they will show up tomorrow briefly not do a thing this week and knock off about Wednesday.   Remember all the old jokes about "bankers hours?"   Those pretty much went away 20 years ago I think because so many small independent banks opened up all over the country and there was real competition for your business.  they started staying open longer hours, saturday mornings you know.  Since 2008 our genius federal government has been closing up small banks, even those making a profit.  They want only a handfull of large banks to regulate.  Now there is no competition and bankers hours are back.  Oh, the bank is open to take your deposits but the loan people are unavailable on Fridays and Mondays and knock off around 3:30 Tuesday thru Thursday.  Mortgage people have no competition, zero, zip nada none my friend. 

 

I guess they make more easy money off loaning the government money over night, why get into the sticky business of making loans to people .... even if they can pay it back.  Oh, I can get you a loan on a condo with an adjustable rate for 5 years but most buyers who are old folks like me, want a fixed rate and only a couple of banks are making those on condos and it now takes roughly 6-8 weeks to get approved.  If you are self employed you might not be able to get financed at all.  It is better if you work for a big company and get a paycheck than if you work for yourself and make double that much....I swear its true.  They want employees for financing not entrepeneurs, not independent contractors.  But I think I wore this out before.  Anyway, we should have The Sand Dollar top floor unit wrapped up this week.

 

In other news, we have another deal on a Makarios Carriage Home working its way through financing.  The buyer is in the medical business and has several offices and the bank is jumping him through flaming hoops....believe it. 

 

We got some new listings that are going to be good ones.  An oceanfront Barefoot Trace on the third floor priced at $399,000 this is a nice place and priced right.  We have a second floor at $397,500

 

A house on 1st street we pronounced to be a steal that came for sale 3 weeks ago....2500 sq ft two blocks off the beach with a nice screened pool for $275,000...guess what, it sold in ten days for cash at $270,000.  Only problem was we didn't get to sell it our buyers moved too slow.  

 

Business in 2012?  We are starting to talk to some owners who are thinking real hard about selling in 2012 for a myriad of reasons.  WE have a new listing at Sea Matanzas that is a good one an oceanfront that is doing about 30 thousand a year in rentals, we have and are working on a second oceanfront at Ocean Village Club that does over 22,000 a year and a couple of other high quality secret spy things I don't want to talk about right now cause all my competitors now look here to see what we are up to.  We sold 30 in 2012.  I haven't talked to anybody anywhere who matched that pace for 2011.  We closed 2011 fast closing on 6 units in Nov and Dec and have a couple pending right now that should close in January with some luck.  Business at St Augustine and Crescent Beach is not dead, slow to some degree but not dead.  If the property is priced right and available to show it will sell.  Problem today is many condos are over priced a little and hard to show cause they are all rented to winter renters for the entire winter.  I had one owner tell me this morning his accountant recommended he sell within the next 12 months because the inside people are predicting there is a good chance the democrats could take congress back in 2012 and Obama will win again and that will spell disaster for people and taxes.  So, he wants to sell now before capital gains taxes skyrocket which is a good possibility in my opinion too. 

Wednesday Dec 14, 2011  Banks are driving everybody nuts.  We currently have four deals to close within a few days of each other.  One is a VA loan and I swore we would never do another deal involving a  VA loan after the last one.  I double swear this is the last damned time.  You can't believe what they run you through.  I guess its because the government is pulling all the strings....then again the more I think about it that's the problem with the other three deals.  There are no small banks left who can compete in the mortgage marketg...zero, zip, nada.  The other three deals are as follows:  #2 has been going on for 8 weeks and the buyer finally gave up and said forget it, bank made him jump thru so many hoops he finally said to hell with it  #3  been going on for 9 weeks now, we switched off one bank to another after the first one simply couldn't get it done.  The second bank says they can do it and after 4 weeks they are still asking for information from the buyer and the condo association.  The bank doesn't like the flood insurance coverage and wants it changed.  How we doin on that one?  #4 was approved three weeks ago and is supposed to close this Friday.  Guess what, a couple of the people at the bank have taken vacation till after Christmas and the third girl who was given the file can't figure out what to do with it.  I wished I could afford to tell her what to do with it.  So, here we sit bogged down waiting on banks and every single buyer is qualified with 20-30% down and have high credit scores.  This is nothing new, this has been going on for a year and it is getting worse.  They all claim new government regulations are choking them to death and I believe it but what choice do we have?  This is the same government regulation that is going to take over our health care?

 

Best deals right now on the beach:   Barefoot Trace 215 a 2/2 1400 sq ft oceanfront flat second floor $397,500      Ocean Village Club Q 35 top floor 2/2 flat oceanfront $299,000   Hibiscus top floor oceanfront flat $299,000   Want cheap?  Ocean Village Club has several 2/2 flats near the heated pool for around $175,000    The steals at Sand Dollar are sold, the steal at Tradewinds has sold, there is a steal at Summerhouse on an oceanfront 2/2.5  that we believe can be stolen in the 350-365 range it needs a little work but could be a real jewel in the haystack.  How bout a 3/2 at Ocean Villas second floor overlooking the interior pool.  It's a big flat with elevator service $229,000 and is the lowest priced unit in the complex.  A steal is in the eye of the beholder, but we can put you in the right place at the right price if you will visit with us.  We will have closed nearly 30 beach condos on the island this year by the end of the month so properties are selling.  A few were fixeruppers a few were 100% perfect, a few needed a little work to make them slick.  Prices have varied accordingly.  Thank you very much Karl and Diane you were very nice people to work with and trust me on this, nice people are hard to come by this day and time.

 

Politically speaking I predicted back in the spring when bank loans were almost impossible to get that they would be directed by the administration and congress to ease up....an election is looming.  Well they have,  but federal banking regulators have created such a quagmire of paperwork for the banks that it has the entire system all gummed up top to bottom and almost nobody knows what to do about it.  I can walk into a car dealership this afternoon and get a $100,000 car in 1 hour and drive out probably with nothing down and 5 years to pay for it.  I can write a check for most condos for sale on this beach but I guarantee you I could not get a loan for a $100,000 condo with 25% cash down.  If I could, it would probably take 8-10 weeks to get it approved.  It's that bad folks.  Gone are the days when you tell the banker you'll just go across the street and get the loan if he gives you a hard time.  Ain't nobody across the street any more.

 

In summation, I honestly believe the entire American banking system is in disarray and their inability to make loans or process them timely if they can make one is keeping the real estate market down and dead.  There are willing buyers who are quality people with ample down payments and good credit they just can't get a loan.   Cash really does talk these days.  Cash has meant nothing the past 20 years at the beach but it does now....big time.  If you have cash let's talk now you can get a better deal with cash most likely.  Let's go fishin'

Monday Nov 28, 2011  News you can use    How many years have I been preaching that St Augustine is absolutely not the dead and dieing real estate market that so many other places surrounding us are!  Hot off the presses today:  The top cities in America where foreclosures are increasing.   Worst is Albequerque NM, second Boston area, third Sarasota-Bradenton Fl, fourth Cincinnati Ohio, fifth Jacksonville, fl and sixth is Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville area in Florida where prices have dropped 53.4%!!!! That may have something to do with the administration cancelling the space program so they can send money to Turkey, Pakistan and Haiti instead so our space industry dries up and people lose their homes as a result.  Makes sense to me.
So, great one how's business?  I have checked with constituents and the concensus is same as us.....went grave yard dead in early November.  Deader than dead. The phone rang twice today and one was a wrong number.  Looking back at past Novembers and Decembers pretty much the same.  Now is the time for buyers to squeeze a good deal because a lot of sellers are and or will be  nervous between now and January when things traditionally start picking up the week after New Year's.  RT   Think I'll go home and have a turkey sandwich with Miracle Whip and white bread.....its the best!
Wednesday November 16, 2011  Things are finally slowing down, had two closings this week three more to go by the end of Turkey week.  Remember you read it right here first in print by the one who knows all sees all.  October will go down nationwide as a huge business month nation wide.  I have a brother in the electrical distribution business he said he wrote more business in October than he did from June thru the end of September.  My buddy Jerry who sells trucks, he is always my barometer...he sells big semi truck tractors....he said his clients were buying new trucks fast as his manufacturer could build'em in October.  Neither guy knows why the spurt...we had it here in the real estate business too.....first of November things died down to the regular dead November syndrome like it always does.  November is the slowest month of the year except for December and that doesn't count.  Brother and Jerry report the same in their businesses.  The only thing I can think of is gasoline....ah yes, the old gas pump.  Prices fell in October I even paid 2.99 one week.  I think people thought everything was going to be alright and loostened up....then presto, gas started going up again.  Keep tracking the price of gasoline at the pump and how the business cycle mirrors the curve.

 

Best deals on the beach right now?  Ocean Village Club, Tradewinds, Colony Reef  those three complexes have some sweet deals overall, individually Barefoot Trace second floor oceanfront 2/2 1400 sq ft is the best buy on the beach for what you get and quality of the complex it is priced in the upper 300s.  Email Ronnie for more information on any of this stuff, I'll swing a good deal for you.  RT

Monday Oct 31st Trick or Treat edition   Mostly tricks today!  We are putting the lid on the busiest October we have ever seen including crazy times in the real estate business.  We put more properties under contract, closed more properties and have more deals "working" than any October I can remember going back to the mid 90s.  What is going on?  I think it is a combination of several things.  First our office at my urging throughout the past couple of years has been working hard to get listings when other offices did not want listings because nothing was selling and listings are a real pain to maintain and wrangle when nothing is selling.  The big boys weren't even wanting listings the little guys couldn't care less either.  Not Crescent Beach Realty.  I am 62 I have been in sales for 50 years....that's right...I was 12.  I have seen and done business during Johnson years,  I vividly remember Nixon putting on the national price freeze when inflation got out of hand over night, I survived Carter years, I saw Reagan pull us out of disaster, we put up with Clinton times (those look pretty good now huh?).  Cutting to the short story, I have always been successful going against the tide.....I have several rules that have never failed me.  When business is bad do not advertise it will not do you any good at all, bad times are bad and ain't gonna change cause you run a few ads.  We quit running magazine and newspaper ads in 2007 while the other small offices practically broke themselves running more and more ads trying to find business.  The big houses doubled up too, they are still in business but they spent all their time hunting for buyers instead of sellers cause sellers were easy to come by.  We consistently concentrated on sellers trying to get listings and taking care of our people best we could.  I said over and over.....when the buyers come back we will be positioned well ahead of everybody else.....guess what?  Buyers came back like a wildfire from Mid Sept thru October 2011.  Is this true everywhere?  I have no idea but I can tell you it is true on Anastasia Island.  Everybody is trying to figure out why we are doing so well while other offices still struggle....by the time they figure that out my next strategy we will have left them in the dust again.  Yes, they all ready my market report....all my competitors.   Yes indeed I am crowing, loudly!  Told everybody so....told em told em told em.  The one who sees all predicts all is dead on again for the 47th time in a row, undefeated, untied, unchallenged and my friends....this is easy there are no secrets except if you do what you do best and do not waiver you will be successful and your clients will prosper with you.

 

So, smarty pants what did you sell last week?  a couple of more small deals not our listings and we put under contract an oceanfront Summerhouse and an oceanfront Barefoot Trace.  No small potatoes. (sp?)  Tomatoes?  Yes, I know Dan Quayle personally and trust me on this he is no dummy, he is a very intelligent man but most of all one of the most gracious and courteous people I have ever met.  Played golf with him several times, had dinner with him too.  In a totally non political setting.  He is truly a very nice person and is friendly to all those who meet him at all times.  He is very down to earth and has very interesting insight into today's goings on.  He ain't no dummy, except that he should have chosen me to be his public relations manager long ago but that's another whole story.

Now for today's rant about banks and financing.  For those thousands of you who follow my teachings and predictions I said 6 months ago that the administration would see to it somehow that banks started lending again.  The mortgage market was virtually frozen last year.  Today we can get people financed again easily on condos and investment properties....imagine that.....wonder why?  Same reason Social Security recipients just happen to be getting a raise late this year while the feds swear inflation is zero (another lie).  Anyway, banks are making loans to solid responsible people right now and we are selling stuff left and right.  BUT here is the problem!  Time, the banks cannot get the paperwork done on time.  Every damned time they don't get it done on time.  You ought to hear the excuses.  Same ones over and over and over.  They ask for copies of the same paperwork over and over and over.  Stuff they already have!  A title and closing agent told me today this is becoming normal.  I now estimate it takes 8-10 weeks to get the paperwork done for a loan on a house or condo.  That's 2 to 21/2 months.  Even on 100,000 dollar deals.  I can walk into a car dealership this afternoon, plunk down 5% mayyyybe nothing and walk out wiht a hundred thousand dollar car in two hours tops.  It takes two and  a half months to get a house loan.  What is wrong with this country?  The answer is simple my friends....government.....government is now riding the shoulders of all bankers what used to take a couple of weeks now takes months.  And this is the government we want overseeing our medical care?  Yes, there were abuses in the banking industry and abuses in the medical industry....but instead of letting those people go broke or locking them up....our government solves the problem by overseeing everything banking and medicine does.....is this what we all want?  I predict the medical care in this country will become worse than the banking industry has become....way worse and I don't know if there is anything we can do about it, the horse is out of the gate and I am not sure anybody can catch him.  RT

Thursday Oct 27, 2011     Ronnie makes more bold and outlandish predictions that I guarantee will come to pass.  Vacant lot owners!  do not dispair.  yes you paid a lot for your lot, no it is not worth today what it was 6 years ago but, hold it right there.  What prompted this expose' was not one but two inquiries we had today regarding vacant lots we have for sale at Marsh Creek.  
I predicted over a year ago that distraught vacant lot owners would have their day and I stand by that prediction and it will be sooner than later.  The newest house for sale on this island is going on 10 years old!  The average house for sale on this island is over 15 years old!  Women shopping for a house "down here" for a retirement home are not liking what they are seeing.  Outdated houses.  Nice to you and me but it is not Mom's dream home.  She wants this, that, she wants new this , that.....Dad is going to have no choice but to buy a lot and keep the peace by building a new house.  Inevitable.  Americans are not like genuine old world Italians, Frenchmen, Swiss you name it....we are obsessed with NEW we do not like 200 year old houses with the pipes showing and wiring running down the walls.  I have no problem with all that but the women want new new new and there ain't no new, no where, no way, no how.  If you own a vacant lot in a good location you will have your day.

 

So what are vacant lots worth today?  I dunno, haven't sold one in over a year but I know what people want.  Ocean front 100 footer?  one million down from two plus.  River front 100 footer?  600 down from a mill.  Marsh Creek marsh view across the savannah grass 85 footer?  200-250 down from 500.  60 footer on the golf course?  110 down from 225.  ungated subdivision nice half acre lot? 140ish down from 225.  Ocewanview at St Augustine Beach 50 footer?  250 down from 500.  Two blocks off the beach?  150 down from 300. 

Do I think lots are going to fall farther?  I don't think so this is where they have been now for two years...anybody unloading cheaper already has.  There are always exceptions but the line in the sand was drawn awhile back....and the ladies will get their way on a new house sooner than later guaranteed.  Doesn't take Swami to figure this one out folks.  RT

 

recent sales?  Just put a beautiful Summerhouse oceanfront town house under contract yesterday.  Good price for the buyer, good price for the seller.  That puts me well over a million dollars worth of contracts in the past 7 calendar days on 3 properties.  Now if I can just hold them all together to get'em closed.  Have two closings scheduled before end of next week we put under contract last month so life is hectic but we will be able to pay our bills this year and besides my back hurts too much to golf every day any more.  RT 

  Monday Oct 24, 2011  last week was crazy to say the least.  We got two contract accepted, got a new listing a 3/2 grounder at Colony Reef for a reasonable price, killed one deal that was pronounced DOA after two days of negotiating and I had clients lose a house they were trying to buy....somebody slipped in and just took it rignt out from under our noses.  Not that we were chiseling too hard, we just didn't have the means to meet the seller's price meanwhile somebody else did.  We have another offer we are working today on an oceanfront Summerhouse.  I have no idea what the buyer or seller will do but we shall see.  They may arrive at agreement only time will tell, I hope so.  The beachline tells me other brokers are not doing so well and business is pretty dead.  could be that we have the best listings on the beach and that is why we are busy.  How can this be?  Simple.  During the past three years when other brokers shunned listings because nothing was selling we kept trying to procure good listings...we never quit because the great one told everybody here the tide would turn and when it did we wanted to be positioned with good listings.  We were and we are.  Now every broker on the beach is soliciting listings again and we are having to fight for them again.  Such is the business and not unlike any other business I have been involved in and I've owned lots of different businesses over the past 40 years.  You start something and appear to be making money then sideliners jump in thinking its easy....presto you have a bunch of new competitors....when business goes bad they leave and go back to flipping burgers.....then things pick up again and here they come roaring back.  It's just human nature....the world is full of followers that cause the leaders problems.  My last venture before this was cell phones.  I had the first independent cell phone dealership in a small town where we lived not far from here.  We sold those things like fries at MacDonald's.  Everybody who walked by had to have one.  500 for the phone, 45 a month plus taxes and a dollar a minute.  Man, that was fun.  We got residuals off people's monthly bills and it added up fast.  Then the phone companies saw how much money we were making and started squeezing us out by allowing more and more shops to open and lowering commissions to the point I finally closed it up. Today pretty much, no such thing as a non company phone store and if you've been in one lately, you know how disorganized and crazy it can be....for a simple phone problem we used to be able to take care of in 5 minutes, takes hours sometimes at company stores.  Could that possibly be because the employees are salaried instead of commissioned like we used to be?  A friend of mine at Bellsouth told me while all this was going on:  "the bosses are starting to figure out you guys are making more than we are"  he warned me they were already plotting to squeeze out all the subs.  When it started to happen, I got out....good move too.   That's today's history lesson.

 

Interesting observation we have been tracking for ten years and now announce our clinical study is complete.  Motorcycle week in October every year in Daytona actually lasts three weeks....half week before the week before the big week then half a week after the big week for a total of 3 weeks.  Got that?  We now confirm what we always thought....a huge surge of lookers occurs during October due to bikesters running out of things to do so they get realtors to ride them around and look at beach properties.  Some rookies will even buy them lunch. We are swamped with showings....fact of the matter is in 10 years we to our knowledge have never ever sold a property to a motorcycle gangster or anybody else on 2 wheels.  We had some people who said they were going to make an offer last Saturday but at least called and said they decided to go home empty handed.  Surprise.  It does get a lot of rookies all stirred up, sellers excited their property is being shown but all said and done the bikers never buy anything.  The deals we wrote this month all buyers were on four wheels, and they bought me lunch.

Wed Oct 19, 2011  Okay here's factual news you can use  As one who knows all and sees all well before it ever happens I do not rely on stale statistics because to me they are old news.  Trust me, by the time information hits the newspapers it is history.  Anyway, this information came to me today from Metro Market Trends an outfit that tracks statistics on area sales not only here but nation wide.  Here is what they said today about St Johns County:  "Single family re sales were down 7% in Sept as compared to a year ago(told ya it was slow in Sept), but re sales are up 7% for the year.  The Total Dollar volume for single family resales was up by 10% in Sept.(that means prices are rising despite the fact number of sales were down dollar volume grew)  The average sales price of a single family home in Sept was $254,500.  (note: this is county wide the island is always more but for an average this ain't bad at all)  There were 68 condominium resales in Sept with the average sale $172,000.  (Again, the mainland drug the island down a bit) Foreclosures year to date are down by 51%."

Okay  What's in the pudding here?  Same thing I have been telling people for a year.  St Johns County as a whole is up in sales, up in values, the island is ticking up faster than the mainland.  The mainland still has short sales and foreclosures, we have very very few.  Hardly any at all on condos...nada.

 

The lesson here?  If you want to know what's going on in the market here at the beach in St Augustine, simply click up Ronnie Tumlin's Market Report right here and you will know long before the so called experts know what is going on.  I rest my case...again...told ya so...again.  TAKE THIS TO THE BANK  well....not so fast, maybe just stuff it in your mattress....when the statistics come out in late November about October sales it will show a big surge in volume and dollars....book it Danno.  The Great One makes yet another profound prediction that shall come to pass.  RT

Tuesday Oct 18, 2011  Told ya cane season was long gone they can't even drum up a good thunderstorm out over the ocean.   How bout this market?  Like somebody turned the water on out of the blue so far this month.  Yesterday we put Sand Dollar 503 and a Makarios up at St Augustine Beach under contract!  Had an offer on another oceanfront that was turned down....okay so it was too low...but hey it was an offer.  Our 4 Winds appears it will close soon, we made offers on a Surf Club for a client today and have a couple more smokin on stuff.....no, not stuff...you know real estate stuff mannnnn.  So what's up with Ocean Village Club Q35?  This is now number one on our radar screen for an income producer....should do well over 20 grand a year rent to the owner after rental expenses easily....people ask me all the time why hasn't this n that sold if its such a good deal?  Answer is pretty much the same.....full of renters all the time.  Sand Dollar was loaded all winter, spring all summer.  finally went under contract this month when nobody was there.....Ocean Village club same story....its even rented every week now until the end of April!  How can I sell something I can't see?  You would be surprised.  I have pictures, we can make an offer, we get it under contract you come look...if you're not happy, we throw the contract in the garbage.  We get it under contract I'll shoo the renters out for half an hour with owner's blessing.  We have a great Summerhouse oceanfront for sale at the right price too in the upper 300s.  Barefoot Trace is probably now the nicest oceanfront under 400 on the whole beach...1400 sq ft, looks good, great rental potential if done right.....its a second floor flat....had two offers in the past few months but people still think this is 2010....ain't gettin it that cheap...that train left the station.  We put a Summerhouse under contract, no two of them...both buyers offered a little more than the last sales went at.....is this a trend?  no.  It's a fact.  Will it continue?  Common now if I knew that I wouldn't be riding herd on all these condos all day.  Business is good, call us we have good competent agents to help...no greenhorns.  RT  904-471-9696

Tuesday Oct 11, 2011  So we had a little blow and some rain...thank goodness we needed the rain bad.  some people likened it to a miniature cane and perhaps it was.  The weather channel showed up satellite trucks blue suits the works and tried their best to get the beach to wash out....."severe beach erosion"   If anything more sand got washed up infront of my house than washed out.  My steps from my walk over are still buried into the beach 4 steps deep.

 

We closed Ocean Village Club R-23 last Friday-thank you Brian and family, we appreciate you guys being such nice people to deal with.  Which gets me to thinking.....99% of all the people we deal with are nice people.  It seems that nice people are drawn to our area, they want nice people around them, they like the safety, the cleanliness of the beach, the roads, the parks, the town, the island.  We are different....really.  You don't see trash blowing around unless it got loose outa my car, I'm not quick enough afoot to catch it anymore and my car is my office away from the office, and my hardware store....a quick check reveals a Garmin, two sets of clubs, 4 pairs of shoes, spare shirt, spare tennis shoes, shoe horn, umbrella, various bottles of half drunk water, various pens pencils note pads, two pairs of sunglasses, hand cleaner, several visors (can't wear hats nobody makes'em big enough), a full sized pillow, forty or fifty bucks in cash including at least 3 pounds of change.....emergency candy bars and half full potato chip bags front seat, back seat and golf club sotorage department....trash?  Lotysd of it.....stuff escapes all the time but somebody snares it down the line I suppose.  It never comes back.  What's selling?   We will be closing on a nice Creston House (second one in a month) in 10 days, the bad news is we are running out of listings.  Most all our good stuff has sold we only have a hand full of great condos to sell now.  On the entire beach there are less than 100 out of nearly 10,000 that are really for sale.  Another 125 the owners just think they are for sale.   Oh yeah, we got a contract on Four Winds this past weekend....now if somebody will step up and recognize the value of the three listings we have in the Q building at Ocean Village Club...problem is Q35 is rented totally thru the end of the year, Q14 stays busy and 23 is always booked so it is tough to show them.  They are rental giants all three of them.  Friend of mine sold a Windjammer last week but it sold under 400.  Not many sales over 400 this year still.  I see the stock market is going up.....they say its Europe stabalizing....baloney I stick by my guns....its the price of oil going down.

 

Political scene:  I am in Atlanta today playing golf with some uppity ups....one guy I know pretty well is a lobbyist in DC.  He knows what's going on believe me.  He is big time.  A country style Georgia gentleman.  Can't mention his name or affiliations but I can tell you for a fact he is called to the White House on occasion to wrangle about one of his clients.  Not only the Obama White House but all the previous administrations for the past 40 years.  Anyway, I asked him today one simple question.  I told him I was predicting Obama would win against all the pundits who get paid to predict.  He said one thing about it:  "can't beat something with nothing"  Good point, I guess his point was he was not confident any of the new people can beat Obama....I still think its because over half the country either doesn't pay taxes or collects a government check of sometime and they will vote......they will vote in unison.  I once asked my lobbyist golfin buddy whether he was a democrat or republican....he gave me a big smile and said "it don't matter, they're all the same....I'm for whoever is in charrrrge"  Spoken by a true professional good at what he does.  Never offends anybody always happy to see everybody.  I would love to go follow him around for a couple of weeks.  I am quite sure he is like a dancer gliding across the floor every day....smoothe and seamless.  RT


Friday Oct 7, 2011 6:30pm I just remembered:  Three of us are still here wrangling showings for the weekend.  somebody asked why all the activity all of a sudden in a supposedly dead time?  It dawned on me I bought gasoline today for $3.29 a gallon down from 4 bucks a few months ago.  Remember I told you I could trace the big downturn right back to January when gas prices started up on a rocket ride and if Obama wants to get re elected he better get gas prices down?  I don't know why, but they are coming down and people are starting to beseige us with looks all of a sudden out of nowhere....now somebody give me another good reason huh?  contact Ronnie

Friday Oct 7, 2011 yeah, I'm still here at the office   October 2011 is getting off to a helluva start!  We have already had two closings-thank you very much Brian, Joy, Mary and everybody else involved.  We have two more scheduled for later this month but no deal is a done deal till it is a done deal.  We have gotten two more units under contract this week and the third late today.  Four Winds is now under contract as of 5:30 this afternoon....finally!  Many of our friends say we're getting rich!   Not exactlyyyyy.....with prices at 150,000 -250,000 on average on the beach now it is like eating lettuce all day....or picking at boiled crabs....you work all day eating but at the end of the day you're still hungry.  Our commission percentages are still the same as always so 3% of 150 grand split two ways ain't much left after you pay out of pocket expenses.  But hey we ain't complainin.....paying the bills and still open while the big chain houses are churning more rookies through their doors than a grapefruit league baseball team.  That's class D league for those non sports folks.  Even Palatka used to have one of those teams, they travel to each other's ball parks in old run down school buses.....still.  It actually rained today!  Now that's news to talk about.  We actually have our first real northeaster blowin and it is so cool and nice for a change.  I am quite sure I'll be tired of cooler weather come February though, tough to fish or golf in the wind and mist and the nice days you can't go play cause customers wanna shop on nice days so we shop.  I think by the end of this month we will have surpassed our sales from 2010 which were pretty good last year by comparative measures with other brokers on the island so we are doing good at finding diamonds in the rough for our clients.  If you have a listing that has not sold, keep the faith we had a Four Winds for over 2 years that went under contract today.  There's an ass for every seat sometimes it just takes awhile to find the right fit.

 

You may recall I predicted as we got closer to the 2012 election the administration would quietly direct banks to start loosening loan requirements and we are seeing that now.  Condo loans are getting easier and easier...not easy mind you,  but easier.....I am amused at one of my political statements I made awhile back.  I told you I liked Herman Cain.  That was back when Herman was classified as having no chance in hell of getting the nomination.  Now, all of a sudden he wins the Fla straw poll and has vaulted into the top 3 cancidates nationally.  Why?  I think because he is not a politician he is a simple businessman who has done well and has simple fix ideas for the country.  I like his 9-9-9 proposal for taxes.  Everybody pays something and the more you spend the more you pay...the more you make the more you pay but everybody has to pay something.  Be interesting to see who can do what but I still predict Obama will win re election.  All the indicators say no way but the one who knows all sees all still says Obama will get re elected.  This could change but for now he is a lock and I will let you know when the great one decides otherwise. 

Sept 30, 2011   Ronnie Tumlin officially declares an end to Hurricane Season for 2011  The one who knows all, sees all now declares hurricane season over and I do not get a dime from the government I do not work at a major university in Colorado and get paid to predict storms.  What was the 2011 prediction?  14 named storms?  4 to hit mainland US?  How many actually threatened the US?  One....and that one was a poor threat at that.  How many hit the US?  Zero.  No, no the storm that flooded New England was nothing but a big rain storm.  When it finally hit land in the northeast it wasn't blowing 50.  Carolinas?  everybody with a surf board showed up for the waves, cops tried to stop'em and gave up.   The news people were hollering about all the homes destroyed by the storm in the northeast? Wind didn't do it was the water what few blew down would have blown down on a nice day at San Pedro off Belize.....hells bells those weather people name every dark cloud that gathers of the west coast of Africa.  What about the storms in the Atlantic right now?  All the great one does is look at the jet streams, hold a finger in the air, look at the weather on the west coast of the U.S. and wade in the surf to check the water temperature.  No way we're gonna get whacked the rest of this year.  The fix is in, cooler weather is prevailing in North America and the surf is too cool, next case your honor.

 

That's it from the Crescent Beach weather bureau, if the guys in blue jackets and satellite dishes with giant fans show up at our beach I'll call ya.  RT

 

Sept 28, 2011  very interesting how the world turns....     just in the past couple of days I have had, count'em two different people who had been sitting on the fence exclaim they were ready to make an offer on properties only to find the ones they were "thinkin about" have gone under contract.  Now they say they want a place just like that last one at that last one's price....guess what?  ain't none!  Just had a broker next door groaning to me he had a guy looking at a high dollar oceanfront for a month then finally called him and said do it only to find out it was under contract and the buy won't take a shot at the others for sale,,,,,he wanted the cheap one.  Guess what?  Is this a trend?  or a quick?  I dunno just amazing I have seen it first hand three times in two days.  Bastard houses still sit, bastard condos still sit....they are not nice enough for people who can afford them and people who can afford them want something better for the same price...guess what?
We have had a lot of sellers the past couple of years suffering from I remember when's disease.  Been a loooong time since a buyer came down with that affliction.  It is a horrible disease infecting the nervous system, your back pocket and brokers alike.  I don't know if there is epidemic afoot but sure sounds suspicious.  Maybe Obama needs to tell me to quit whining and get on with it.  I will say business has been busier this Sept than I have seen it in a long time,mostly busy work but busy.  I usually have time to make more cosmos shaking predicitons but just too busy.  I am seeing another something though....banks giving people a hard time on short sales and its about time.  Been too easy the last couple of years.  I have seen short sales go through and people walk Scott free from the obligations. (who was Scott anyway?  Some guy who shot the sheriff and got off the hook?) All of a sudden banks are checking a little closer than they used to and short sale deals are blowing up because the bank found out the seller could actually take the hit financially and the bank is holding their feet to the fire.  We need more of that, been too easy for people to skate.  How bout Herman Caine?  I like his 9,9,9 proposal so I know it won't go anywhere.

 Sept 23, 2011  Took a couple weeks off for continuing education.  Needed a rest from the meat grinder.  These next couple of sentences are for sellers...if you are a buyer go look at some of our listings and click outa here.  As I tout myself as the great one who knows all, sees all, predicts all it begins to get boring when I say "see? told you so" said it so many times it is getting old hat.  Government is too predictable.  I predicted several months ago, when people started chirping their property taxes were going down over last year due to dropping property values,  that property taxes would be going up and sooner than later.  I said that local government never heard the words "cut back"  they have no idea what that means.  It is always easy to spend other people's money I don't care if you are republican, democrat or jackassacrat"  if its somebody else's check book its real easy to write one.

 

Headlines in St Augustine Record dated Wednesday Sept 21, 2011  "County Oks property tax hike"  Surprise surprise.  Who would ever have thunked it?  Meeeee that's who because government is so predictable at all levels.  Which leads me to the national level too.  If we give the fed government more money to solve the debt problems do you think they will cut spendng?  Don't bet the farm on it, not even a dime I don't care who's in charge.  Case closed.  If you own real estate today, your taxes are going up and will continue to go up while the budget increases.  Government cannot say no not in their vocabulary....they just say more more more.......

 

Okay you buyers can come back in the room.  We are still writing contracts this month.  Not a lot of them are getting accepted but buyers and sellers are still butting heads.  We have managed to keep three deals alive this week, closed two last week and we're working on a Summerhouse deal right now but I have my doubts how far it will go.  We are about 15% apart with buyer and seller so its tough sleddin.

 

We have had a lot of people looking for houses close to the beach lately. A block or two off the beach, older houses affordable for middle class people.  Here is the problem.  There is a nice collection available but they are all bastard houses in great locations.  You can actually see the ocean from the living room or deck no problem....a short walk to the beach and nice neighborhood.  The problem is the houses are old anywhere from 25-35 years old.  Prices are in the mid 200s to mid 300s.  People who can afford them want something newer or nicer.  People who like them as they are, can't afford them.  Perfect cocktail for a bastard house.  My clients are asking me why can't I find a house a block off the beach that is new?  I tell them there are lots of those but the prices start with 5 and go up from there.  They can't afford that,  next case your honor.

 

Best deals on the beach?  Today?  hard to say right now depends on your price range.  If you are in the 150-200 range come look at Ocean Village Club interior units.  Today's prices are same as 10 years ago.  Complex is large, looks great, in healthy financial condition.  Ocean front units are in the upper 200s and are great buys if you can swing 275ish and these bring in roughly $20,000 a year net to the owner.  Speaking of rent....I find it amazing that a house on the beach will fetch roughly 60-100 thousand a year rent?  I'm thinking rather than sell I'll just rent it forever and go find somewhere cheap to live in my old age.  They tell me I could get around 90 thousand a year in rent....that's a lot!  Even to me, so I guess I don't know EVERYTHING......

 

Want a good deal on an oceanfront 2/2 townhouse?  Tradewinds for 299,000 I think I can get you a Summerhouse oceanfront for well under 350,000 an oceanfront Barefoot Trace flat 2/2 for under 400, Sand Dollar oceanfront 3/2 for 425ish.  How bout an Ocean Villas 3/2 on the pool side for $225,000?  WE just listed an oceanfront 1/1 at Beacher's for $129,000.  Needs a little work but hey's it's cheap, oceanfront and could generate decent rental income.  Gotta run, got a counter offer coming across the wire on our Summerhouse deal.  RT
Sept 5, 2011 Labor Day  supposed to be a day of rest huh?  not around here man.  We have had the usual flood of people coming to the beach to look.  Some actually made offers.  That's what I'm doing here today processing the contracts and trying to find the listing brokers we are making offers to.  None can be found...imagine that.  Perhaps that's why we outsell the rest of them huh?  Nah, couldn't be that we answer our phones on holidays and weekends could it?  nahhhhh.  You see, the ones who dabble in this business take holidays off....that is when working people who buy stuff are out shopping dummy.....we take weekdays off and weekends when nothing is going on.  Major 3 day weekend holidays you best be on the wall boys cause something is going to happen.

 

While showing properties all day Friday, Sat, Sun I saw some good ones.  Saw a superb Summerhouse condo....really really nice remodel job and my customers liked it a lot too.  Hope they make an offer on it, its a good one.  Talked to a man who has two condos in the same complex and contemplating selling one, torn between which to sell.  Both were well above average, in fact they were both superb all I want is one of those Bill and we'll sell it.  Thank you Ray and Cindy for calling us hope the deal works out.  Ed and Victoria talk like they are ready to pull the trigger let's just decide on which one.  Brian?  I know you are there ..... Brian has made a super deal on a super place, we had it inspected last week and the inspector said it was the first condo he ever checked that had zero fixes due on it....zero.  John, hope you like your new Tradewinds, great views great deal for you.  Sound like we are busy?  We are!  May we work for you?  We have a new agent on board who showed stuff all week too Michael Burban a retired college professor who is younger than I am...damnit....but he is doing real well, after only 60 days on the job he has two deals working and several other good customers shopping for the right place.  We welcomed him (which we usually do not welcome many new people at all) because he is smart, quiet and listens.  I talk all the time but the most important thing for a realtor to do is to listen to the customer, filter what he is telling you then come up with the right property.  I have worked at several brokerages (yes the chain people too) and 99% of all agents talk too much, you have to listen to your customer.  I want listeners.  How can you do your customer a good job if you do all the talking.  I talk plenty but usually when it is answering questions then I'll talk a lot.

Better shut up, giving away too many trade secrets....but hey I got lots more brand X never dreamed of.

 

Thank you so much Rob, Jim and Dan I appreciate your trust.  We will do good.  We will play Winged Foot.  I can cover that promise just not sure when but we will do it if I have to fly up there for a weekend.  Will be playing next week with my connection in a tournament in Penn.

 

So what's hot on the market right now?  Man, its gotta be the Ocean Villas 116 a 3/2 flat with nice pool views, central downtown location at St Aug Beach, easy walk down onto the beach, oceanfront pool the works for $229,000.  Also one of the units in the Q bldg at Ocean Village Club we have had two count'em two offers this past week on Q35 but not enough.  We will get one that is enough soon I think but the problem is now it is rented every day until the end of October.  Tough to show.  Asking price is $299,000.  The Ocean Sunrise is set to close Friday, we have a Summerhouse. Ocean Village Club, Preserve, Heritage all pending to close in Sept.  We are sitting on a couple of offers right now I can't talk about till we get'em accepted by all parties.  Life is good, business is good.  Financing has loostened up as I predicted here a couple of months ago when it was becoming obvious Obama was in big political trouble.  Only way to turn it around is to make loans to legitimate people and the feds are now doing so...surprise surprise....I still say Obama will get re elected, its a long time till November 12.

 

So the US Postal Service is broke....surprise surprise....I have three count'em three friends my age and younger who are totally retired from the post office they have full medical care free, they get a nice check every month.  I know three!  How many more millions are out there?  I don't fault the guys collecting in their 50s and 60s but there is no way you can have as many retired as working...ain't gonna work.  This is why I say Obama will be re elected in 12.  There are more people retired getting checks, federal state and county employees who still work, and people on the various doles than there are independently working in this country.  He will scare hell out of the people who depend on the government for healthcare, for their income and livlihood.  They will vote him back in,  book it Danno.

 

Don't believe me?  Remember the budget thing when he wanted congress to borrow more money?  He said social security checks might not come in the mail, he said military people might not get paid.....did he mention that the federal bureaucrats in DC might not get paid?  nooooo he tried to scare the most people he could and by all accounts he did....and he will again book it Danno.

 

Meanwhile here at the beach we'll just keep on keeping on.  No short sales, no repos, no foreclosures to speak of...people keep asking but we don't have any.  If you want one of those go to Daytona or Palm Coast they have hundreds, thousands.  Anastasia Island is the healthiest real estate market in Florida period.  Where do you want to buy?

August 29, 2011  Irene?  I was quiet on this one.  We went on vacation to the keys about the time that thing was first hitting the far out islands and everybody flushed out of there.  Hurricane Ronnie told our band I didn't believe it would hit the keys or Florida so we went ahead and went down there boat, fishing gear, dive gear and all.  Marathon was deserted.  All the tourists were scared and left.  We had the run of the place.  All the locals were miffed at the money they lost but they did good on us believe me.  My friends in Texas were calling about how bad was the wind and rain at Crescent Beach?  I called home and my friends here said they were all playing golf that day.  No big deal hardly rained at all.  It was never a windy cane just a wet one as confirmed by the folks up north.  I had to laugh at the NY media going out and taking pics of a couple of trees blown down in the park like it was a big deal.  Some people in the Carolinas had some bad luck and New England is flooded pretty good.  What I couldn't understand was why all the hype in Manhattan?  They got a lot more trouble out of the big snow storm last year didn't they?  The Today show Monday morning it was business as usual with the crowd on the street.  I just can't see how a cane will blow real hard (more than 90) when it gets that far north...and it didn't.

 

Real estate?  we have 5 contracts working right now so business is good!  We crashed and burned two but both parties of buyers are still looking and hopefully we can find them exactly what they want.  I was pleased to find when I got to the office Monday morning that one of our clients we took shopping week before last had signed a conract with a developer on a new house just north of town.  she is getting 2500 sq feet new house, lots of upgrades, nice subdivision......$82 dollars a square foot total price!  Now that's a good deal I think and it is with a nationally known builder.  This is the third deal we have gotten for a buyer of a new house this year there.  Houses here at the beach will cost nearly double that...but location location you know the drill.

 

Best deal on the beach right now?  Ocean Village Club Q35 and Ocean Villas 116.  We have both listings and how do I know they are the best deals on the beach?  Because every broker on the beach with a customer is showing them both right now.  We have been bombarded with requests to see these two....we are also getting a lot of action on Four Winds J17 a nicely remodeled 2/2 for $159K it is 50 yards off the beach no views but you can hear it smell it and get to it real easy and for the money,.....what a deal!  Surf Club is still getting a lot of looks.  We have no listings there but have shown several and had people make offers on those...see Surf Club in our condo index for more info.  Barefoot Trace has hit a brick wall of late.  It was the hottest property on the beach last year...this year...dead.  reason?  I think because most buyers today are in the 150-290K price range and it will take more than that for an oceanfront flat 1500 sq feet.  Last year the 400K buyers were all over the place and snapped up 7 of those.  Times change and the bigger money people will be back.  Meanwhile, we are writing deals on the smaller priced units left and right.  Banks have eased up a bit on loan requirements too.  Look for loans to get easy as the election gets closer and the threat of the current administration  getting beat looms....they will put a gun to the head of the lenders to do deals.....not sure it will be a smart thing to do.  Interest rates in the 3% range?  common...inflation is running faster than that....true inflation.  the feds don't count the real stuff like food and gasoline when calculating inflation.....of course not, it would show numbers on a rocket ride.  They've been cooking the inflation books for decades its not just an Obama thing.  RT

August 18 n a half....can't stand it  my regular desciples know how I am always carping about fuel prices...Jay Leno said last week:  They say the price of gas could soon be under three dollars a gallon.  You can now afford to drive by the house you used to own, go by the job you used to have and drive by the bank where you used to have money!  Really, some analyst said gasoline would soon be under 3.00....no way Jose'  look for 4 dollars right back in your face sooner than later.  RT

August 18, 2011    Ronnie Tumlin known by many as the oracle of Crescent Beach is once again light years ahead of the news you read in papers and see on TV.  Not a week goes by somebody doesn't ask "what about Palm Coast? Prices down there seem awfully good..."

Ronnie has been telling people for 3 years to beware.  I told them why would you want to buy property in a market flooded with foreclosures and repos and short sales?  People have left here and bought properties in the Daytona Beach area saying they got better deals.  Did they really?  Now you all know by now that I continually make fun of newspapers for writing stories I have predicted wayyyy before time and here we go again.

Front Page  business section August 17, 2011 Florida Times Union newspaper

A list of the worst real estate foreclosure markets in America

 

#1  Miami corridor      #2  Palm Coast      #11  Daytona Beach/Ormond area    #18  Jacksonville      #22 Destin-Panama City

It went on to list the 25 worst markets in America and several other Florida locations were in there Tampa-St Pete, Orlando, Sarasota, along with the usual suspects in Arizona, Nevada you know all that.  Since St Augustine is a local market for the Times Union, you would think we would have made honorable mention....not one word.  Not even a mention.  I am quite sure these FACTS are indeed accurate.  Just goes to prove what Ronnie has been telling our clients for years.  If you want to know what is going on talk to meeee first.  If Ronnie is giving you info it is news by the time you read about it, it will be history.  St Augustine and our beaches are an island of prosperity compared to the rest of the free world....we are special and the statistics prove it.  Therefore the statistics prove that Ronnie's opinions are close to fact.  Next case your honor. 

 

In other news:  Trend continues through this week.  For the second time in a week I have had a client make an offer on a condo and get into a bidding war with other potential buyers.  We lost the first one got the second one.  This is happening in one particular price range.  Under $150,000 in the St Augustine area especially near the beach.  We have put three units under contract in the past week and lost a couple of bidding wars betwen us.  One was $131,500 another went for $100,000 and a 1br just got accepted at $67,000.  These are not monumental deals but deals nonetheless...is that one word?  It is now.  I see a Summerhouse closed yesterday, we have one pending, we closed a Creston House yesterday and have half a dozen clients planning on making offers on various beach condos in the next two weeks.  Some are talking to their banks, some discussing with relatives or children, some just smokin on it for a week or so.  If only half of them come together we will have had another good year.  Got off to a real slow start but could be a decent year yet.  I think people are calming down about gasoline at $3.60 a gallon around here....I swear there is a distinct connection between gasoline and national mood swings.  I can feel it I can hear it, it's everywhere .... as gasoline goes the country goes.  If Obama wants to get re elected all he has to do is open the oil fields....that is all he has to do.  And, he may yet.  If he does remember, you heard it right here first....as usual.  RT

August 16, 2011  just now catching up from a super busy weekend  Lots of lookers bailing out of the stock market, don't trust the Wall Street Gangsters anymore.  Any questions?  I swear that's one buy who was a banker from a major metro area in the southeast told me Saturday.  How bout gasoline?  There was a prediction by a renowned prognosticator back in May gasoline would go to 4.50 by July this year....never made it even close....now its 3.60 and some guy said today it would be below 3.00 soon....Ronnie sez:  Gasoline will hold around 3.75 for the remainder of the year, could go to 4 if we get a storm....and that's a big IF.  Just depends on who the oil people ;want in the White House as to what gasoline will do.  Yes, I believe "they" can and do control the supply and price of gasoline to a certain extent.  Who are "they?"  I dunnnoooo, they.....I do know this, gasoline is why we went back into a severe slump the first half of the year and the economists who don't know squat have no idea that is why.  They blame jobs, taxes, congress, George you name it....its the gas dummy...the gasoline period end of story, next case your honor.  So is anybody buying anything?  yes and no.  Offers but the buyers are still lowballing asking prices which are already lowballed....I've said it before, buyers are acting like this....they see an ad at Penney's for 40% off and go to the store and the pair of pants is marked 50 dollars  scratched thru with a red pen and labed 30 dollars.....the buyer comes in and wants the pants for 40% off the 30 bucks making them 18.  ain't gonna happen at Penney's ain't  happenin at the beach either.

 

There are still at least four outstanding offerings out there and I have seen all four this past week.  Call me or email Ronnie for information sheets and opinions on these as to why I think they are outstanding listings on the beach.  Price ranges vary from 175K to 425K just depends on your flavor of preference.  RT  oh yeah my personal cell is:  904-501-1010  thanks

August 8, 2011 Storm?  What storm?  Let's talk business, this weather prediction stuff is too easy.  What's new for sale on the beach?  Not much my friend.  It has been and is being picked over every day we have new people coming in to look, some make offers, some do not.  Some have been drinking O'Reilly's Cool Aide and think they can get a choice property on the beach for 30% less than the asking price which is 50% less than 5 years ago and sellers are saying thanks but no thanks.

 

We have had a couple of Wall Street guys come in purchasing low priced high quality rental properties.  They are telling me they think quality  rental real estate is a good place to park money right now for the next few years and I tend to agree.  Lots of unknowns.  Let's do the math on a beach condo that costs let's say 300 thousand.

 

If you paid cash at $300,000 and if it generates $20,000 net to you rent every year right now (yes,  there are beach condos in this price range that generate that kind of income)  what will you triple net?  Taxes:  3500   HOA fees: 4000  Utilities: 1200  Insurance: 1000  total:  $9700.00 expenses associated with owning the condo.  Let's say another 1000 for various maintenance issues over the course of a year now we're at 10,700 and let's throw in another 300 bucks for extra toilet paper (lots of fat people renting the unit this year)  That's $11,000 a year max and I have been overly cautious on these estimates.  This leaves you with $9000.00 after all the smoke clears.  3% return period This does not count any appreciation over the next few years should we get a new regime in Washington and heads roll in congress.  Who will pay you 3% on anything right now?  What can you buy paying 3% that you can sleep in?  Live in?  Send your friends  to have a good time for free?  Never before have we seen this scenario.  When purchase prices were $450,000 for this property the rent was still around 20,000....the purchase price has plunged but rental income has remained steady at worst, some properties have gotten better rent the past few years.

 

I can think of three condos right now that will do better than this example....three!  Call me and let's talk about it I can prove it and the units are a stone's throw from the beach....and you don't have to be a major league ball player to do it either.  So, if this is the case why would anybody want to sell?  Easy answer.  Because people owe mortgages on these and want out from under it.  I know of no good deals out there where somebody owns it free and clear...zero zilch nada.  If they own it outright they are keeping it.  That is all you really need to know.  But this my friends is the advantage of cash....okay what if you have half cash?  Still works, get an el cheapo loan right now and you're just fine.  30% down?  Still comes so close its pocket change negative flow.  Some sellers simply have been moved to other parts of the country and can't use their little cash cow any more and need money cause their income has diminished the last few years, some people's portfolios have gone in the toilet and they need money to live on, the grand children's condo at the beach is going to be the lifeline for people who thought they had enough to retire on.  They want to sell too.  Grand kids will have to fend for themselves and that my friends is just the way it is and ain't gettin no better no time soon.

 

I took a head count this morning and between Dusty, Michael, Cindee and me, we have 7 people coming to the beach in the next 45 days who swear they are going to buy something.  We have been sending them info for quite awhile now and here they come...or they say they are coming.  I had some people in here Saturday make offers on two properties got turned down on both and they left empty handed.  That happens a lot too so we'll see what happens. 

 

Today is August 8th and the stock market is plunging and everybody is crying wolf, gold is shooting straight up, the politicians are blaming the Tea Party, George Bush....hell, they'll be blaming George Washington next.  Bottom line is easy.....quit pissin money down a bottomless hole and everything will be fine in time.  Get government off my back.  I was in the broadcasting business for 30 some years and I finally gave up and sold everything.  One new regulation after another, on and on....they broke us with new regulations.  When they complained they said "raise your rates" to pay for it....our clients said no thanks.  We cut overhead, we cut employees, we computerized (yes, most radio stations today have a handfull of people most of is done by computer programs there isn't a soul there after 5 pm it is all computers talking to you till tomorrow morning....maybe mid day too...drive times are still live in most markets)...we skimped, we fixed equipment instead of replacing it....we finally gave up and sold out for what we could get.  The new owners sold out after a few years.  I would conservatively estimate that government regulation costing us real dollars out of the business shot up 5 fold in the 30 years we owned the stations.  How much of it was necessary in Ronnie's opinion?  zero  How can that be?  Here's an example, they made us buy a new emergency broadcasting notification device to alert you of a nuclear attack.  Cost us 3500 dollars and the gadget we had before that was perfectly fine and besides, the whole world would have known it before the feds sent us a message about it to tell you.  I put a sign on the door of the station that read"  IN CASE OF NUCLEAR ATTACK, RUN LIKE HELL!  WE ALREADY LEFT   True story I swear.  Another story, one of our gas station clients told us one day to cancel their contract and they were stopping all advertising because they were required to install emergency generators in all their stations in case of an electrical failure.  Costing them $6000 per station.  And for what?  Probably some generator company got hold of some politician and told him to get behind a law requiring stations to do this and they would make sure he got re elected and give him stock in the company......wouldn't surprise me at all.  There was a new small army of government inspectors hired to inspect all the stations and test the generators every 60 days so there was another penny gas tax to pay them...and for what?  I can tell stories like these for hours about government putting us out of business with new regulations that are meaningless.  I have lived to see Big Brother become a reality and it only took 27 years longer than predicted....can you believe that movie was so old it was black and white?  But it has come to be my friends, has come to be.  Protect yourself!  BUY A CONDO AND CALL MEEEEEEE........RT

August 4, 2011  Ahah!  right again  Some pipsqueek storm is brewing south of the Bahamas and they say it will be a threat to the Florida east coast by Friday or Saturday.  Ronnie sez:  mayyyybe, looks like a goodun to me.  The paid experts say it will not go over about 70 mph when it comes to us or by us.  One of my clients called today to ask what preparations I was making for the storm?  I said I was going to go play golf at Marsh Creek Saturday and maybe even Sunday so long as it doesn't rain too much.  The computer models all looked like the end of a broom yesterday with a couple of stray straws going off towards Texas, one towards Alabama and the most of them coming up the east coast then going in around Savannah.  If the winds stay around 70 no big deal, thunderstorms blow that hard every day somewhere around here.  If the winds somehow pick up into the 90s or 100s then I'll think about a few more screws on the decking down on the beach.....hmmmm better go do that tomorrow I don't want you know who saying I should have done it this week instead of going to the club.  Grasshopper syndrome.  Here's the script for the Weather Channel guys who are heading this way right now with their satellite trucks and blue rain jackets:  How is out there Jim?  "We're getting rain bands right now coming and going, winds are about 35 mph but we expect them to be picking up soon."  What about those surfers out there Jim?  These guys are crazy, rip currents you know.   What about Beach erosion?  We expect severe beach erosion over the next 24 hours.  Have the authorites evacuated the barrier islands?  It is not a mandatory evacuation but authorities have said do not call if you have an emergency there will be no emergency people left here by morning.  What about that guy sitting out on his front porch with dogs on the grill?  Sir, are you going to evacuate?  Not me, I'm riding it out.  I've got a flash light, candles, a box of ice, a week's supply of water and my I phone.  Gotta go guys, here comes another band of mist....er, rain band from this behemoth of a storm threatening the outer edges of Florida's east coast....This is Jim Dandy reporting from Crescent Beach where all eyes are on this first storm of the season, back to you in the studio.  Thanks for that report Jim, we now go to our hurricane expert Doctor Harry Cane....doctor what can Florida's east coast residents expect over the next 24 hours?  Lots of rain and wind if this thing gets going Wanda and some severe beach erosion.  But Doctor Cane, beach erosion is a naturally occuring thing, how is it looking at the pictures yesterday homes along that area have their beach walk overs half burried in the sand, couldn't they use a little erosion now and then?  Wanda, let's switch over here to our satellite view of the system, see these rain bands extending out for 40 miles?  These could cause severe flooding and its the twisters coming off these outer bands that cause the real damage.  But Doctor what happened to that storm that was supposed to wash away Texas last week?  All we saw were a few wind surfers having a big time at North Padre and the rain dancers west of Houston are still dancing.  We'll be right back after this word from Home Depot your hurricane supply headquarters"   lights off, cameras off but mic still on:  Okay guys let's go get a beer down at the Oasis we'll set up down at the pier later tonight....and don't forget that fan we might need it to blow the mister around a little better. .......

 

Business?  very good the past week.  We closed one condo Monday, another Tuesday, we have had two contracts accepted and pending the past 5 days, had a short sale approved and set to close in 3 weeks, picked up a new listing today of an ocean view flat for 199K and have several prospects coming to town to shop over the next several weeks so life is good and hectic.  We had one deal killed by the bank because a management company owns more than half the units in a complex near the beach. A guy wanted to buy one  and new rules will not allow a bank to finance a unit if more than half in the complex are owned by one entity....mannnn, don't ask me, I dunno.

Oh yeah, I do have a cash buyer closing on a Tradewinds top floor oceanview in two weeks, forgot about that one.  I guess because with a cash buyer once you get the deal agreed to and inspections done there is no hassel.  No, no I love banks, without them we would have a helluva time making a living.....I just hate the hassels we now have to endure because of the crooks in this business.  WE have to toe the line because the crooks nearly broke the banks so now honest outfits have to dance while the feds and banks take pot shots at our toes.  I will betcha dollars to doughnuts....no, those are worth more than a dollar now.....dollars to pesos (I think a dollar is worth more ...isn't it?)....anyway betcha the crooks have already figured out how to get around all the road blocks already and do it easily.  They always are a step ahead of regulators because they sit up at night plotting how to beat the system instead of paying the piper while the rest of us dance and pay.

 

Best deals on the beach right now?  Let me tell you inventories are down...way down....good deals are scarce.  We got a Summerhouse under contract this week at a good price, a Hanna's Walk at a good price but there are no cherries out there right now except Ocean Village Club in the Q building and a couple of Sand Dollar units that can be bought in the 400s and you can still pick off a Summerhouse in the very low 200s or even 190s if you scratch real hard.  The problem is right now we are in that "under 200" mode with buyers....seems like every single buyer wants something under 200 and all that stuff has been snapped up.  The upper scale buyers just are not here.  I do not know why.  Could be they are older buyers and are wary of their savings and scared to do anything.  Washington hasn't done a damned thing to help.  The so called "deal" appears to be no deal to me at all if the numbers are right,  that we will go 7 trillion more in debt over the next ten years.....I have to throw all in with the Tea Party people right now myself.  If its pay up now or pay up later, then let's pay now.  Kind of like putting off an ass whippin at the wood shed.  Daddy says we can do it now or you can do it next week.  Only a dummy will say next week....I want it over with right now so I can get back to what's important instead of worrying about it.

 

Big news on dredging!  The Corps of Engineers is right now as I write,  pumping millions of yards of sand ;from the waterway shallows onto the beach at Summerhaven just north of Marineland.  Bulldozers are leveling and spreading the sand as they move south.  The new Summerhaven inlet has been plugged up with new sand and dunes have been built.  They even have covered up some turtle nests or come so close I sincerely question if the turtles will hatch at all.  But here's my question.  Where are the turtle people?  They have stopped us from driving on the beach after 7pm or before 7am.  They have stopped me from having lights on my walkways, on my deck, hell I can't even turn the lights on inside my house after dark this time of year without getting a letter threatening a fine.  The Corps can fill the beach with millions of yards of sand during turtle nesting season?  Common mannnnn.  And here's the irony of it all, first time we get a good storm all that sand will wash away again just like it did last time....couple of million down the drain...again.  Why?  Because the turtle people will not let the corps install rocks along the road side because they say the turtles won't like those rocks.  The turtles will go somewhere else!  Crescent Beach has 9 miles of pure sand perfect for nesting we have a bunch of new nests right now.....that one mile of beach has to have rocks or all that sand will wash right back into the waterway again just like it has over and over.  Greenies and Government are so stupid sometimes.  I think they're just doing it to keep those 8 guys working who are doing the job while the dredging company is raking in a load to do the same jobs over and over again.  If that toy hurricane does come by this weekend, I will be right there watching to see what happens.  I learned when I was around 5 that if you dig a hole on the beach, come back tomorrow and it is all filled up again.  If you build a sand castle on the beach, come back tomorrow and it is all flat again.  The greenies and government has no idea.  Good thing Ronnie isn't in charge is all I can say.

July 31, 2001  Ronnie Tumlin declares the beginning of Hurricane Season  The self proclaimed oracle of Crescent Beach hereby declares iit is now time to keep an eye peeled for canes in the Atlantic.  However, contrary to the so called experts who get paid big bucks for their forecasts, Ronnie questions the number of real threats to Florida.  I am guessing less than half of what they have predicted.  I have been more right than they have been for 6 straight years and why not the 7th in 2011?  The surf temperature is still fairly cool in the low 80s
History is also on my side.  We have never ever taken a direct hit by a significant hurricane in recorded history.  Yea yea I know, but Injuns never kept written records and that huge fort was built here for a reason and there are no sunken Spanish treasure ships out here offshore....zero....why?  cause canes don't come here....we get side swiped, we get threatened but they always seem to turn right when they get close if they ever get close.

 

So, how's business?  Good!  Only one problem now, we have people making offers but sellers are hesitant to accept the offers...this cycle has begun once again.  We have several new contracts in house right now but they are all under 200 except for one at nearly 400.  tough to pay the bills on small deals but nobody really cares....except us.
July 23, 2011  Ronnie just got back from a couple of days off and a fact finding mission  Many of you know I am a golf player and I travel the country time to time playing national senior amateur events.  I just returned from a fancy club in Columbus, Ohio.  What a great town, clean, slick, great people as a whole.  Business is thriving, the real estate market is robust.  People in Columbus look at you and say recession?  what recession?  How can this be?  The answer is simple for the one who knows all sees all as if the world was made of glass.  Columbus is the gut of America for sure, but it has Ohio State University, it is the state capital, it is head quarters for numerous national insurance companies, software companies, is a huge distribution center for the mid west south of Chicago.  They have no idea what a short sale is, they don't care what gas costs.  I am one of the world's leading experts on gourmet junk food and thusly I always make it a point to visit all the local junk foodies in older sections of town as well as the upscale neighborhoods.  Never saw a local ice cream parlor I didn't sample.  These little neighborhood ice cream shops were loaded every night of the week....literally loaded with people from 6pm till 11 every night.  THREE DOLLARS a scoop!  for what I deem to be mediocre ice cream.  God only knows what they could fetch for some good ice cream
Doc Beckett and I went to two different shops one night to compare, both were good but not outstanding.  The ice cream in both was home made and good but not as rich and creamy as I would like, not as chocolatey as I want to see chocolate.  Not as pecanie as I would like to see in my buttered ice cream.  The strawberry was different too...they super blended the strawberries and poured in the cream before freezing...it comes out strawberry colored but not a lot of flavor and no chunks of strawberries.  But here's the deal, anywhere in America you go to gourmet junk food depots you will see a bunch of tubbies standing around at the counter, out on the picnic tables, waddling out to the car with a sack full ..... In Columbus not many tubbies at all....mostly average sized people with three scoops on top of a sugar cone.  Maybe its because the ice cream is not as rich as we southerners like it huh?  I just don't think they know better.  All this leads me to this conclusion which I apply to the real estate business.....if you like it then it's good, no...it's great.  If Ohioans like rather bland ice cream with a hint of flavor then it's great cause they were churning thousands of dollars an hour in those little shops at 3 bucks a scoop withpeople standing three deep, 10 scoopers and three registers constantly hitting the jackpot.

 

If you and I go out and look at condos tomorrow and you like it, I like it.  Might not be my flavor.....but if you want to take a bite, then its the best there is and that's how we work our real estate business.  There's a behind for every seat, a pipe for every set of lips a flavor for every cone lover......we'll find something you like guaranteed.  You may not like the price but we can find something you will like.  The end of summer is coming rapidly although you would never know it with 100 degree temps in Columbus.  School starts in 17 days in Colorado, I understand they only go to school four days a week in Colorado....mondays are off every week.  We'll all be laughing at Al in a couple of months...what global warming?  RT

July 11, 2011  You wanna know what's wrong with Washington?  Wrong with the whole country's financial situation, look no farther than a congressional hearing with banking reps last week.  Congress and the administration wants lenders to write down certain principal amounts on certain home mortgages....in other words if your pay off is 300K and you are having trouble making payments the administration wants the lender to say you really now only owe 200K.  In other words,  write you a check for a hundred grand.  Guess what?  Every person in America who owes on a mortgage will simply stop paying till their bank writes down their principal 30%.  When did we get this bunch of rocket scientists embedded in Washington?  Or did they simply sneakup on us over the past 20 years.  The bankers hollered bloody murder and said just what I said:  Every sob in the country will quit making payments when they hear the lenders are ordered to write down the principal amounts on home mortgages.....can our politicians get any dumber?  Don't bet against it my friend.  I just found out about food stamp replacements....they now get "flag cards" a credit card with an American flag on it....every month the feds issue you new credit for more food at the grocery store so you're not embarrassed using stamps.  I see this woman whip out her flag card the other day and the cashier said those cigarettes can't be processed using the flag card....the shopper said:  okay, I'll just pay cash and pulled out a wad to pay for the weeds after swiping her flag card for the food.  She, by the way was easily 300 pounds plus.  And congress wonders why we are pissed off?  RT

July 9, 2011  Would somebody pulleeeze tell people across the country to quit believing all the so called expert analysts in New York who say the real estate market is falling another 30%!  Damnit, those idiots never even heard of St Augustine Beach.  All they look at is 3 month old data from Florida and say it is still crashing.  Florida numbers include Miami, Ft Lauderdale, West Palm....they are all still in the toilet.  We climbed out of the abyss two years ago.  It's kind of like saying Florida is Obama country.  Nope, extreme southeast Fla is Obama country northeast florida is anybody but Obama country....but they are so overwhelming in numbers compared to us people who control the media in New York assume all of Fla is like Miami.  Just like many necks like me assume all of NY is like Manhattan.  It ain't !

 

All brokers report this week they are super super busy, we have been too.  Nobody knows why but ;meeeee.  Simple, gasoline fell 75 cents a gallon in the past three weeks...everybody was getting optimistic and came out of their shells.....will it last?  Noooo .  Gasoline already up 15 cents this week from the low of around 3.40....when it jumps another 20 cents to 3.75 and keeps climbing everybody will clam up again.  The idiots in NY and Washington were shocked unemployment rose to 9.2 last week....that's because their numbers are old.  New revisions will show it decreased guaranteed....but if gas goes way back up the sky will fall again guaranteed.  All Obama has to do to get re elected is to simply let this country start drilling.  So goes gasoline, so goes America simple as that.  Even our business here....there is no other explanation for things busting loose the past 30 days....watch it crash again when we get to 3.75 and it could be sooner than later.  RT

July 6, 2011  Business still okay, wrote a couple more contracts this week, half got turned down, still negotiating on the others.. Nothing is easy anymore.  There is no such thing as a clean deal....absolutely no such thing.  It's the way the whole world is working now.  The sellers think the buyers are crazy, the buyers think the sellers are crazy, they both think the brokers are crooks, the brokers are caught in the middle and this is no fun.  I ask how have we gotten to this point?  Every broker I talk to tells me the same thing over and over.  Every deal is crazy with people fighting and fussing start to finish.  It doesn't have to be this way.  Personally I simply blame the federal government and the way they have conducted themselves the past few years.  I think their way of doing business at all our expense has normal people now thinking everybody is a crook.  I have no other explanation.  Everybody is looking for something amiss in every deal and there is no such thing....driving us all crazy.  When we finally get a deal done, everybody is happy because they all found out nobody is trying to swindle anybody but getting them there is tough tough.

 

The best deals on the island right now are our Q building units for sale at Ocean Village Club.  We have a first, second and third floor unit all priced under 300 all doing very well with rentals, especially Q14 and Q23.  Q35 will do much better with the right rental agent.

 

If you want a vacant lot we have some really nice lots for sale on the beach, near the beach, at the country club, on the island in non gated subdivisions you name it.  I think this.  Vacant lots are not in favor right now because used houses are so cheap.  People can buy a used house for way less than they can build a new one.  That will change and here's why.  Ronnie sez vacant lots will come back in favor for one simple reason.  The newest house for sale on this island is close to ten years old...okay 7...what's the difference.....people are shopping and the houses are getting older and older...not a single builder is building spec houses....zero......there will come a time when people want a new one and they will HAVE to buy a vacant lot and build one.  I guaranee it.  It will happen and when the first couple of vacant lots sell nobody will notice but once a trend begins it will be a land rush and this is goingn to happen sooner than you think.  I am not ready to make a solid prediciton yet only that it will happen sooner than later.

June 24, 2011  what goes up usually comes down.....except the needle on my scales.....two weeks ago we were flying high, then this week we closed one deal just fine on Windjammer, but Ocean Village Club crashed when the buyer got cold feet the day before closing and withdrew, another deal at Ocean Gallery the bank got cold feet saying the buyer was not allowed to own two condominiums...never mind they had impeccable credit and ample down payment.  Now the feds are telling us and our bank what we can and can't buy.  Never mind it wasn't responsible people like this that caused the melt down...it was the feds letting banks let people who had no business investing in real estate buy stuff they couldn't pay for...and encouraging it!  Now, we have to pay the consequences.  Ain't government great?  Can you tell I'm having a bad week?....Wellllll not so fast my friend.  After all this went down Wednesday and we were in the dumps, we already have a cash customer wanting to take the Ocean Village Club to hell with the bank he says.....we have somebody wanting the first condo our Ocean Gallery buyers already own, so if that goes thru they can get financing so we're half way on edge today.

 

We are running out of good listings....we are feverishly hunting new properties to put on the market.  Buyers are still here, still making offers problem is we don't have exactly what they want....all the good stuff has been snapped up....except for a few good ones that are rented and the renters and rental agents are making it tough to show the units....sure you don't want to get in the real estate business here in 2011?

 

So what exactly is going on?  I don't know, buyers are still telling us they think now is the time.....problem is the financing.....banks have so many strings it takes weeks to qualify somebody even if they have perfect credit.  The bank won't count your income if your job is less than a year old, the bank holds it against you if you have cosigned a note on a car for a kid.  They don't tell you it will diminish your credit if you co sign with a kid...noooooo not at the time.  They will no longer let you count rental income as income if you own property and rent it out....on and on this goes....it is infuriating.  Private lenders are seeing all this and are like vultures hanging about offering loans to credit worthy people at 10% interest....and some people are paying it!

 

What are my best picks right now?  Marsh Creek Country Club houses are still cheap cheap, Summerhouse condos you can still buy one in the low 200s, we just closed on one today....cash buyer...no problems.  Windjammer has some nice oceanfronts in the 375 range, Barefoot Trace 215 is a hot pick right now oceanfront 1400 sq ft priced at 397,500, Ocean Village Club....we have a couple in there that are oceanfront for less than 300, Hibiscus we have a top floor oceanfront 2/2 for 299K, you can buy an Ocean Villas at St Augustine beach, second floor flat with elevator service, huge balcony 3.2 in nice shape with good rental history...asking price is 229,900.....this is an oceanside complex short walk to the beach has a great view of the pool from a 24 foot balcony.  How about a condo right ON THE BEACH literally Sea Matanzas the high tides literally wash up to the walkway....from the living room and master all you see is beach and water....best I can describe it is like those houses in California built on the beach.  No, this place has been built on huge pilings, has been there for decades it ain't goin nowhere....349K...problem is bank won't finance it without you jumping thru some hoops on fire.  It generates over 30 grand a year in rental iincome!  No, you can't count that if you are applying for a loan despite the fact it has been doing this kind of income for years.  Why would owner want to sell you ask?  I dunno, he moved to Oklahoma.....I guess to chase tornadoes or something and needs a bullet proof truck.

 

Gotta go, got people coming in here to go shopping for a Surf Club this afternoon....oceanfront for 250ish....it's south of us at Palm Coast area, but hey its cheap!  RT    contact ronnie  for scathing rebuttal, opining is just fine

June 6, 2011 fiiiire!  see below
June 2, 2011    Man, what a month May was.  We put the following condos under contract in the past ten days:  Ocean Sunrise 105, Ocean Village Club Q35, Windjammer 214, Colony Reef  2111   That is a bunch for us or anybody else for that matter.  I knew things were going to break loose.  Sprinkled in between those deals that now appear to be solid, we had three other contracts written that did not stick for one reason or another.  Today, I am passing a few minutes on the keyboard waiting for an offer on Ocean Club 10 that is coming in from another office via email.  So things are happening! Update to this posted Monday the 6th:  Are we on fire or what?  The Ocean Club deal is signed and sealed this morning, we got two more over the weekend an Ocean Gallery and a Summerhouse under contract!  I think the crazy stock market is flushing people back out into the real estate...last week's stock market about sealed the deal for us nobody's down at the beach.

 

My best bet for the dollar right now?  Ocean Village Club Q-23 this thing is in the ocean front building second floor, elevator, flat, fully loaded, has a rental booking that is outstanding...it is doing over 20,000 a year net to the owner and the asking price is $275

Barefoot Trace 215 this unit is oceanfront, flat, 1400 sq feet in better than average shape, fully furnished rental ready.  It will do 24,000 a year net to the owner in a bad year and the asking price is $397,500

Want a view for cheap?  How about Creston House?  there are several units there under 200,000...I said under 200....nice views.  You want one there remodeled?  how but 249?  great views.

Sand Dollar top floor unit 503 this is a short sale, and can be bought right right....call us about it....local bank quick resolution on any offer

 

If you are a seller, keep the faith....your property will sell.  If you don't want to sell, fine let's see what the future brings.  If you are a buyer I really think now is the time and now has been for the past 18 months...prices are still stable.  I do not think we will see a big uptick in prices in the next couple of years but what we are seeing is that the choice condos are being bought up....when prices start up in a few years only the dogs will be left......call us, email us....whatever, let's talk.  Ronnie Tumlin    contact Ronnie

May 16, 2011  Told ya so!  This is a little gloating for I love to gloat and gloating is good for you.  The one who knows all sees all predicts the future perfectly yet again.  I told all our sales people when they were moping around here that I felt a pent up desire to buy properties in our area...I had a gut feeling there were lots of people just sitting on the fence and rocking back and forth in the wind and that when they came they would all come.....the first bird flew off the wire last Wednesday.  By Sunday we are working no less than 6 deals and it looks like all 6 are going to go under contract.  All six are fair prices in our opinion.  Sellers have decided the market is not going up 20% in the next six months and buyers have decided the market is not dropping another 20% next month.  Apparently they have been reading my market reports.  Too busy to opine but will report back in a few days when I can catch my breath.  6 deals may not sound like a lot but we are just 2 full timers and a couple of part timers...that is a lot of property contracts and we do not target short sales and junk....our deals are quality deals on quality properties at the beaches.  We leave the junk to the junky brokers.  Okay, I sold a junk deal this year but it was a good junk deal.  I made 600 bucks and the buyers got a steal.  Took more work than a million dollar deal but the buyers are happy as jaybirds in a blue berry bush.  RT

Sinko day Mayo   Yes, I know how to spell it just funnin'   But hey just to prove the great one who knows all, sees all and predicts all......first one of my friends in the big time banking business in the Chicago area...I mean biiiiig time, those guys you read about in the WSJ all the time.....except it's not about giant bonuses he tells me...anyway he sent me an email and said I was dead right about appraisals and the feds being the reason housing prices are stagnant and the misery feeds on itself and there is nothing we as ordinary people can do about it.  Which got me to thinking.....I know I am right and he confirmed such.  I haven't heard from my Houston banker yet but betcha he agrees.  Anyway, here is a new revelation that came to me last night while trying to figure out why Obama finally called the shot on Osama.  (they knew where he was 8 months ago)

 

I think it was a two headed dragon.  Too many people in the intelligence community and military knew where Osama was and they knew Obama knew it.  If Obama did not make the call, the word would get out before the election, that Obama let him go like Clinton did.  A sure fire way to lose the election and they better wax Osama before he got wind, wised up and moved again.

 

So, let's apply the same reasoning to the real estate market.  After all the accolades quiet down,  the economy is still in the toilet and not looking much better.  I say the only thing that will get us on sustainable recovery instead of these peaks and valleys is the real estate in this country has to start moving again.  The feds are choking the life out of the real estate business through various channels including the banks and it trickles down to the appraisers.  A total trickle down effect.   Big banks can big money loaning to the feds overnight , don't have to build reserves to cover the loans and have zero risk because Bernanke has set it up that way and I see no changes in the short term.  Hell, Fannie and Freddie just announced their first profit in years during the first quarter!  Imagine that.  You don't suppose the loans going out now are rock solid instead of rock stupid do you?

 

Here is what the great one predicts:  As the 2012 election cycle heats up on the national scale, the democrat senators are going to put the heat on Obama, Obama is also going to start to run desperate because the economy is not coming back until the real estate market comes back.  We might can weather 5 dollar gasoline but I doubt that too.  I hereby pronounce that the administration will start turning the screws the other direction starting about September this year.  They are going to make Fannie and Freddie loosen up, they are going to make the treasurey quit paying banks big time for not loaning money and they are going to reverse current course. I say they are already talking about changes in policy now in place that keeps banks from loaning money or even wanting to loan money.  Book it Danno.  Obama is going to have to dry up the federal watering hole for the banks and make them start loaning money again to people who can't pay it back and we will have a false start up in the housing market that will not be sustainable but it will jump start everything long enough to get re elected and you can remember you heard it right here first.  Osama is history and history repeats itself.  Back a politician in the corner and threaten to take his jets away and he will change.......quickly...... RT

May 1, 2011   Okay, here we gooooo!  We wrote four contracts for sale the last week of April.  Guess how many became agreed to deals?  Right.  Zero, zilch, nada, nuttin honey.  I have just come to the conclusion we have a problem Houston.  And here it is in a nutshell.  Buyers are absolutely refusing to pay more than the last guy paid for a same same condo on the beach.  Sellers on the other hand are refusing to take what the last guy sold for.  Never mind the condition, never mind it is the only one like for sale at the time.  To make matters worse if the buyer wants to get it financed the bank will not approve a loan for a higher price than the appraisal and the appraisers are coming in at the either the same last sale price or in some cases lower!  So we have a catch 33 going on.

Many owners of condos on the beach tell us they are waiting for the prices to go up.  The feds have made it virtually impossible for prices to go up because they won't let banks finance for more than the last deal sold for.  If a buyer still wants to do the deal he has to pony up more cash to make the difference.  Example:  The appraisal is 275,000 and the buyer says he will pay 275 but the seller says no way he won't accept a dime less than 300.  So now the buyer if he is going to pay more he has to pull out 20% of 275 which is  $55,000 for the down payment....but if the seller will only take 300 and the buyer still wants it he is going to have to pull out  $80,000 for the down payment and guess what folks?  That breaks the camel's back most every time, no deal, not gonna happen, no way Jose'.

 

Are we getting discouraged?  Yes we are.  Are we the only ones with this problem?  Every agent I talk to is giving me the same sob story.

I blame it on the feds.  They have laid the entire housing collapse at the feet of appraisers and the banks.  Hogwash.  It happened because the feds demanded banks make loans to people who couldn't and wouldn't pay the loans.  Now the feds are blaming the banks and appraisers and changed the rules so there is no way in hell housing prices can rise....can't happen.

 

Now, I know full well my banking buddies Skip and Marty....No, I swear that's their names.....this ain't no disney movie.....I know full well they will tell me it's not that simple.  Yeah, I know and I could write a short novel about it...I said in a nutshell and believe me, the problems in the housing market will fit in that nutshell and I see no way to get the feds noses out of our business.  They caused the crash and they are keeping the train chained to the station lamp post....it ain't pulling out any time soon with risiing prices.....We have buyers and they are willing to buy they have to have cash and cash is in short supply this year unlike last year.  RT